Racing Club Villalbes x Polvorin Betting tips for January 12 in Spain Tercera Group 1

Our betting tip for Racing Club Villalbes x Polvorin, Sunday, 12/1/2025

📅 12/1/2025 11:00

Racing Club Villalbes 1.94

X 3.20

Polvorin 3.58

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Racing Club Villalbes x Polvorin:

👎 Umm…too bad! We did not find any positive expected value bets for Racing Club Villalbes x Polvorin

The main points for the tip for Racing Club Villalbes x Polvorin: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Racing Club Villalbes in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $44.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Polvorin in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $50.0. 👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team, Racing Club Villalbes scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 5 matches as the away team, Polvorin scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 4 Polvorin matches as the away team, it finished over 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 7 matches as the away team, Polvorin conceded at least 1 goal(s). 👉 Playing as the home team, Racing Club Villalbes conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 3 head-to-head against Polvorin.

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Analysis from Racing Club Villalbes x Polvorin for the Spain Tercera Group 1 – 12 of January

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Racing Club Villalbes x Polvorin right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1244844 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Racing Club Villalbes x Polvorin

Should you bet on Racing Club Villalbes?

🔵 Racing Club Villalbes: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 52.83% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 1.94. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 530 times – having a profit of $498.20;
• And would lose other 470 times – having a loss of -$470.00 with them.

Even if it is a positive expected value bet, the expected profit is just 💰$28.20 which is not worth the risk in our opinion.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 26.34% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.20. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 260 times – profiting $572.00;
• And would have lost other 740 times – with a loss of -$740.00 because of them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$168.00.

Is betting on Polvorin worth it?

🔴 Polvorin: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 20.83%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.58. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 210 times – this would give you a profit of $541.80
• And would have lost other 790 times – with a loss of -$790.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$248.20.

Handicaps analysis for the match Racing Club Villalbes x Polvorin

Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.25 Racing Club Villalbes
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Racing Club Villalbes x Polvorin

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.25 Racing Club Villalbes, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.5 Racing Club Villalbes.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.5 Polvorin.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Racing Club Villalbes x Polvorin

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.50 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.25 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.