📊 Check out the full analysis on Betfellows: Prognostic for Real Betis x Sevilla
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Analysis from Real Betis x Sevilla for the Spain Copa del Rey – 15 of January
🏟️ Real Betis X Sevilla – Spain Copa del Rey
A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Real Betis and Sevilla.
And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 287992 matches on the database from our soccer prognostics platform, Betfellows, looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:
Tips for the Match Odds market for Real Betis x Sevilla
Is it worth betting on Real Betis?
🔵 Real Betis: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 49.18% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.70. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would have hit 490 times – having a profit of $833.00;
- And would lose other 510 times – having a loss of -$510.00 with them.
So this is a value bet. After all, at the end of these bets, you would have an expected profit of 💰$323.00.
Is betting on draw worth it?
⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 20.97% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.10. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would hit 210 times – profiting $441.00;
- And would have lost other 790 times – with a loss of -$790.00 because of them.
Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$349.00.
Is betting on Sevilla worth it?
🔴 Sevilla: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 29.85% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.60. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would have hit 300 times – having a profit of $480.00;
- And would lose other 700 times – having a loss of -$700.00 with them.
That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$220.00.
Handicaps analysis for the match Real Betis x Sevilla
Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.
Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: 0.0 Real Betis
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Real Betis x Sevilla
⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 0.0 Real Betis, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 0.0 Real Betis.
The handicap that our algorithm found is the same as the bookies, which means that there is not any value to bet on the Handicap 1×2 market.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Real Betis x Sevilla
⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 3.00 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.25 goals.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.75. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.
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Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.> Check other content created by Humberto Alves