Real Cartagena x Patriotas FC Betting tips for April 17 in Colombia Primera B

Our betting tip for Real Cartagena x Patriotas FC, Thursday, 17/4/2025

📅 17/4/2025
00:00

Real Cartagena
1.88

X
3.10

Patriotas FC

4.00

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Real Cartagena x Patriotas FC:

🔮 Real Cartagena wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Real Cartagena, you can win up to $940.00!

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The main points for the tip for Real Cartagena x Patriotas FC:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Real Cartagena in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $233.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Patriotas FC in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $177.0.
👉 In the last 6 matches as the home team, Real Cartagena scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 matches as the away team, Patriotas FC scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 Real Cartagena is good playing home: it has 6 wins in a row in its last matches at home.
👉 In the last 4 road matches, Patriotas FC has not lost any of them.

Summary

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Analysis from Real Cartagena x Patriotas FC for the Colombia Primera B – 17 of April

🏟️ Real Cartagena X Patriotas FC – Colombia Primera B
📅 17 of April, 2025 – 00:00
🔵 Real Cartagena – Winning probability: 56.59% | Fair line: 1.77
⚪ Tied game – Probability of tied match: 31.50% | Fair line: 3.17
🔴 Patriotas FC – Winning probability: 11.90% | Fair line: 8.4
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.5 Real Cartagena
⚽ Expected goals: 2.25 goals
⛳ Expected corner kicks: 9.75 corner kicks

When the best bet on Real Cartagena x Patriotas FC is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1305181 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Real Cartagena x Patriotas FC

Is it worth betting on Real Cartagena?

🔵 Real Cartagena: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 56.59% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.88. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

Would have hit 570 times – having a profit of $501.60;
And would lose other 430 times – losing -$430.00 with them.

It is a value bet, since after all you would have an expected final profit of 💰$71.60.

Should you bet on draw?

⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 31.5%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.10. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

Would have hit 320 times – having a profit of $672.00;
And would have lost other 680 times – with a loss of -$680.00 because of them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$8.00.

Is it worth betting on Patriotas FC?

🔴 Patriotas FC: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 11.9% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 4.00. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

Would have hit 120 times – having a profit of $360.00;
And would lose other 880 times – having a loss of -$880.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$520.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Real Cartagena x Patriotas FC

Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.5 Real Cartagena
⚽ Expected goals: 2.25 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Real Cartagena x Patriotas FC

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.5 Real Cartagena, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.25 Real Cartagena.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.25 Real Cartagena.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Real Cartagena x Patriotas FC

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.25 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.25 goals. As the handicap available on the market is the same as that indicated by our robot, we will do nothing since there is not value bets on the Goals Handicap market.