Real Madrid B x Merida Betting tips for November 30 in Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2
π
30/11/2024 20:30 |
Real Madrid B 2.10 |
X 2.90 |
Merida 3.40 |
This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Real Madrid B x Merida:
π Unfortunately, we do not have any positive expected value tips for Real Madrid B x Merida
The main points for the tip for Real Madrid B x Merida: π If you had bet $100 on Real Madrid B in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-125.0. |
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Analysis from Real Madrid B x Merida for the Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 – 30 of November
ποΈ Real Madrid B X Merida – Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Real Madrid B x Merida right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.
And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1230061 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:
Tips for the Match Odds market for Real Madrid B x Merida
Is betting on Real Madrid B worth it?
π΅ Real Madrid B: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 46.69% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.10. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 470 times – profiting $517.00;
- And would have lost other 530 times – with a loss of -$530.00 because of them.
Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of π°-$13.00.
Is it a good idea to bet on draw?
βͺ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 33.49% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.90. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 330 times – this would give you a profit of $627.00
- And would have lost other 670 times – with a loss of -$670.00 because of them.
Even if it is a positive expected value bet, the expected profit is just π°$43.00 which is not worth the risk in our opinion.
Is betting on Merida worth it?
π΄ Merida: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 19.82% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.40. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 200 times – this would give you a profit of $480.00
- And would have lost other 800 times – with a loss of -$800.00 because of them.
So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of π°-$320.00.
Handicaps analysis for the match Real Madrid B x Merida
Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..
Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:
β Handicap 1×2: 0.0 Real Madrid B
β½ Expected goals: 2.00 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Real Madrid B x Merida
β Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 0.0 Real Madrid B and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.25 Real Madrid B.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.25 Merida.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Real Madrid B x Merida
β½ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.00 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.00 goals. As the handicap available on the market is the same as that indicated by our robot, we will do nothing since there is not value bets on the Goals Handicap market.