📊 Check out the analysis on Betfellows for this match: Full prognostic for Roma x Lecce
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Analysis from Roma x Lecce for the Coppa Italia – 20 of January
🏟️ Roma X Lecce – Coppa Italia
Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Roma x Lecce right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.
And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 290148 matches on the database from our soccer prognostics platform, Betfellows, looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:
Tips for the 1×2 market for Roma x Lecce
Should you bet on Roma?
🔵 Roma: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 93.95%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 1.30. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 940 times – profiting $286.70;
- And would have lost other 60 times – with a loss of -$60.00 because of them.
It is a value bet, since after all you would have an expected final profit of 💰$226.70.
Is it a good idea to bet on draw?
⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 1.91% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 5.00. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 20 times – profiting $80.00;
- And would have lost other 980 times – with a loss of -$980.00 because of them.
That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$900.00.
Should you bet on Lecce?
🔴 Lecce: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 4.14% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 8.50. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 40 times – this would give you a profit of $300.00
- And would have lost other 960 times – with a loss of -$960.00 because of them.
We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$660.00.
Handicaps analysis for the match Roma x Lecce
Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.
Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.5 Roma
⚽ Expected goals: 3.25 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Roma x Lecce
⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.5 Roma, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -1.5 Roma.
Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 1.00, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 1.5 Lecce.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Roma x Lecce
⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 3.25 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.75 goals.
Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.50, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.75 goals.
Our tips are also on YouTube
Besides the artificial intelligence that you have here, our sporting bets experts are on YouTube searching for the best bets for Thursday. Right above you can check our last analysis and be a part of the community by subscribing on our betting tips channel on YouTube.
Get tips from our experts on your cellphone
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Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.> Check other content created by Humberto Alves