📊 Check out the full analysis on Betfellows: Prognostic for Rotherham x Lincoln City
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Analysis from Rotherham x Lincoln City for the England League 1 – 18 of January
🏟️ Rotherham X Lincoln City – England League 1
Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Rotherham x Lincoln City right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.
And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 289715 matches on the database from our soccer prognostics platform, Betfellows, looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:
Tips for the 1×2 market for Rotherham x Lincoln City
Is it a good idea to bet on Rotherham?
🔵 Rotherham: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 76.14% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.44. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would have hit 760 times – having a profit of $334.40;
- And would lose other 240 times – having a loss of -$240.00 with them.
It is a value bet, since after all you would have an expected final profit of 💰$94.40.
Should you bet on draw?
⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 13.38% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 4.40. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 130 times – profiting $442.00;
- And would have lost other 870 times – with a loss of -$870.00 because of them.
Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$428.00.
Is betting on Lincoln City worth it?
🔴 Lincoln City: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 10.48% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 6.50. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would hit 100 times – profiting $550.00;
- And would have lost other 900 times – with a loss of -$900.00 because of them.
That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$350.00.
Handicaps analysis for the match Rotherham x Lincoln City
Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on soccer betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..
Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -1.0 Rotherham
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Rotherham x Lincoln City
⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -1.0 Rotherham, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -1.0 Rotherham. As the handicap available on the market is the same as that indicated by our robot, we will do nothing since there is not value bets on the Handicap 1×2 market.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Rotherham x Lincoln City
⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.75 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.75 goals.
Since there is not big differences between the handicap offered by bookies and the one suggested by our algorithm, we can consider that there is no value to bet on the Goals Handicap market.
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Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.> Check other content created by Humberto Alves