📊 Check out the analysis on Betfellows for this match: Full prognostic for Sao Martinho x Paredes
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Analysis from Sao Martinho x Paredes for the Portugal Campeonato Nacional – 16 of January
🏟️ Sao Martinho X Paredes – Portugal Campeonato Nacional
A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Sao Martinho and Paredes.
To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 288046 matches from Betfellows database, our collaborative prediction platform, seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:
Tips for the Match Odds market for Sao Martinho x Paredes
Should you bet on Sao Martinho?
🔵 Sao Martinho: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 56.86% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.90. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would have hit 570 times – having a profit of $513.00;
- And would have lost other 430 times – with a loss of -$430.00 because of them.
That is why this is a value bet. In the end, you would have had a final profit of 💰$83.00.
Is it worth betting on draw?
⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 28.04% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.00. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 280 times – this would give you a profit of $558.60
- And would lose other 720 times – having a loss of -$720.00 with them.
We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$161.40.
Is it a good idea to bet on Paredes?
🔴 Paredes: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 15.1% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 4.12. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would have hit 150 times – having a profit of $468.37;
- And would lose other 850 times – having a loss of -$850.00 with them.
So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$381.63.
Handicaps analysis for the match Sao Martinho x Paredes
Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on soccer betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..
This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.5 Sao Martinho
⚽ Expected goals: 2.25 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Sao Martinho x Paredes
⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.5 Sao Martinho, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.5 Sao Martinho.
Since the handicap offered by bookmakers is the same as the one we got with our model, there is not any value bets on the Handicap 1×2 market.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Sao Martinho x Paredes
⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.25 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.00 goals.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.00 goals.
Our tips are also on YouTube
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Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.> Check other content created by Humberto Alves