Septemvri Sofia x Spartak Varna Betting tips for September 30 in Bulgaria First League

Our betting tip for Septemvri Sofia x Spartak Varna, Monday, 30/9/2024

📅 30/9/2024 14:00

Septemvri Sofia 3.75

X 3.30

Spartak Varna 1.96

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Septemvri Sofia x Spartak Varna:

🔮 Spartak Varna wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Spartak Varna, you can win up to $980.00!

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The main points for the tip for Septemvri Sofia x Spartak Varna: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Spartak Varna in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $255.0. 👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team, Septemvri Sofia scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 8 matches as the away team, Spartak Varna scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team, Septemvri Sofia conceded at least 1 goal(s). 👉 Playing as the home team, Septemvri Sofia conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 3 head-to-head against Spartak Varna.

Do you want other options of bookmakers to bet on Septemvri Sofia x Spartak Varna?

If you already have an account on Bet365 or want other options of bookmakers, do not worry! This list below was carefully created taking you into consideration. These are the best betting sites analysed by us in 2024. You just have to click, deposit and bet:

Analysis from Septemvri Sofia x Spartak Varna for the Bulgaria First League – 30 of September

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Septemvri Sofia x Spartak Varna right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1191189 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Septemvri Sofia x Spartak Varna

Is it worth betting on Septemvri Sofia?

🔵 Septemvri Sofia: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 24.85% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.75. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 250 times – having a profit of $687.50;
• And would have lost other 750 times – with a loss of -$750.00 because of them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$62.50.

Is betting on draw worth it?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 22.51% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.30. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 230 times – this would give you a profit of $529.00
• And would lose other 770 times – having a loss of -$770.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$241.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on Spartak Varna?

🔴 Spartak Varna: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 52.64% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 1.96. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 530 times – this would give you a profit of $508.80
• And would have lost other 470 times – with a loss of -$470.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$38.80.

Handicaps analysis for the match Septemvri Sofia x Spartak Varna

Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.25 Septemvri Sofia
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Septemvri Sofia x Spartak Varna

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is +0.25 Septemvri Sofia and the available handicap to bet at the moment is +0.5 Septemvri Sofia.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: +0.5 Septemvri Sofia.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Septemvri Sofia x Spartak Varna

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.50 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.25 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.