📊 Check out the analysis on Betfellows for this match: Full prognostic for Serpa x Esperanca Lagos
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Analysis from Serpa x Esperanca Lagos for the Portugal Campeonato Nacional – 16 of January
🏟️ Serpa X Esperanca Lagos – Portugal Campeonato Nacional
When the best bet on Serpa x Esperanca Lagos is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.
And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 288046 matches on the database from our soccer prognostics platform, Betfellows, looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:
Tips for the 1×2 market for Serpa x Esperanca Lagos
Should you bet on Serpa?
🔵 Serpa: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 12.45% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 4.50. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 120 times – profiting $419.40;
- And would have lost other 880 times – with a loss of -$880.00 because of them.
That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$460.60.
Is it a good idea to bet on draw?
⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 32.14%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.45. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 320 times – this would give you a profit of $784.00
- And would lose other 680 times – having a loss of -$680.00 with them.
That is why this is a value bet. In the end, you would have had a final profit of 💰$104.00.
Is it worth betting on Esperanca Lagos?
🔴 Esperanca Lagos: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 55.41% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.69. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would have hit 550 times – having a profit of $379.50;
- And would have lost other 450 times – with a loss of -$450.00 because of them.
So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$70.50.
Handicaps analysis for the match Serpa x Esperanca Lagos
Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.
Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.25 Serpa
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Serpa x Esperanca Lagos
⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be +0.25 Serpa, and the current handicap offered by bookies is +1.0 Serpa.
Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.75, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: +1.0 Serpa.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Serpa x Esperanca Lagos
⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.50 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.50 goals.
The handicap that our algorithm found is the same as the bookies, which means that there is not any value to bet on the Goals Handicap market.
You can check out our tips on YouTube
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Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.> Check other content created by Humberto Alves