Sevilla x Osasuna Betting tips for November 8 in Spain La Liga

Our betting tip for Sevilla x Osasuna, Saturday, 8/11/2025

📅 8/11/2025 15:15

Sevilla 2.11

X 3.20

Osasuna 3.50

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Sevilla x Osasuna:

👎 Unfortunately, we do not have any positive expected value tips for Sevilla x Osasuna

The main points for the tip for Sevilla x Osasuna:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Sevilla in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-25.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Osasuna in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-399.0.
👉 In the last 6 matches as the home team, Sevilla scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team against Osasuna, Sevilla scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 6 Sevilla matches as the home team, it finished over 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 6 matches as the home team, Sevilla conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 Playing as the home team, Sevilla conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 3 head-to-head against Osasuna.

🤖 Critical analysis from ChatGPT on our prediction for Sevilla vs Osasuna:

Lets analyze the match between Sevilla and Osasuna at Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán Stadium, Sevillas traditional home, known for its intense and historic atmosphere for La Liga games.

📈 Table analysis: Sevilla is in an intermediate position with 13 points, showing some recent instability. Osasuna aims to solidify its mid-table position to keep alive the chance of European competitions. This need may boost the visitors motivation to seek a positive result away from home.

📰 Recent news: Sevilla struggles to impose its offensive style at home, with only one convincing win in recent matches at Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán. Additionally, the team faces significant injuries that could affect its performance. On the other hand, Osasuna maintains focus on discipline and respecting the clubs decisions to ensure stability and good results.

The statistical analysis shows Sevilla has a higher average of shots (12 vs. 10) and ball possession (55% vs. 43%) at home, but concedes more accurate shots (5 vs. 3). Sevillas average goals scored per game is higher (2), but it also concedes quite a few goals (2 per game). Osasunas numbers are more modest both offensively and defensively away from home.

Normalized fair odds calculation:

• Implicit probabilities of median odds: Sevilla win ≈ 1/2.11 ≈ 0.474; Draw ≈ 1/3.2 ≈ 0.3125; Osasuna win ≈ 1/3.5 ≈ 0.286
• Sum = 1.0725
• Adjusted probabilities: Sevilla win ≈ 44%, Draw ≈ 29%, Osasuna win ≈ 27%

Qualitative analysis of fair odds:

• The slight advantage to Sevilla is consistent due to the historic home factor and higher offensive volume;
• Recent difficulties in winning at home weigh in;
• The realistic possibility of a draw is high given the relative defensive solidity of both teams;
• The away win cannot be completely discounted due to Osasunas current motivation.

Expected value calculation based on final odds:

• Expected value Sevilla win: ((2.1 / (1/0.44)) -1)*100 ≈ -3%
• Expected value draw: ((3.4 / (1/0.29)) -1)*100 ≈ +6%
• Expected value Osasuna win: ((3.4 / (1/0.27)) -1)*100 ≈ -7%

Thus, the only positive value is on the draw bet, which exceeds the criteria (>+5%).

Analyzing predictions from the Bets Kenya model:

• They also favor a draw (+3.8% EV), partially agreeing with me;
• I disagree with the low probability assigned to the visitors win, as I see strong motivational potential in the visiting team;
• The home win bet has no value according to both calculations due to recent internal difficulties;

🎯 Conclusion: For this match, I would recommend betting on the draw, as it offers a consistent positive value considering statistics, injury news, and recent tactical positioning of the teams. Its a safe bet given the uncertainties on both sides! ⚽️🤝

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Analysis from Sevilla x Osasuna for the Spain La Liga – 8 of November

When the best bet on Sevilla x Osasuna is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1434165 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

The latest news about Sevilla x Osasuna

Sevilla: The latest headlines from Sevilla highlight the debut of former sporting director Monchi as a DAZN commentator for the high-level clash against Atlético Madrid at the Metropolitano, where he praised the team as a “reflection of what Matías builds – an intense counter-attacking team that stands out when they steal the ball and transition quickly, but faces difficulties when forced to control possession,” noting that the club remains one of the leagues best visitors, but has struggled to impose its style at home, with only one convincing win at their own stadium; he also highlighted recent performances against Mallorca and Real Sociedad, which showed a more proactive game despite modest points return, and recalled that the team seemed destabilized after the winter break.

Osasuna: Osasuna is entering the next round of LaLiga EA Sports 2025 with a visit to Sevilla, where the hosts are dealing with several injuries before the match, while the clubs recent game against Real Oviedo was broadcast live; midfielder Lisci publicly called for respect for the boards decisions, emphasizing the teams focus on maintaining discipline while seeking to consolidate a solid mid-table position and keep European competition qualification within reach.

Table analysis for the match between Sevilla x Osasuna

Sevilla: Currently in 13th place with 13 points, Sevilla is quite far from the European competition spots and has no immediate risk of relegation, which begins at 18th place with 9 points. With the matchday advanced, this game is important for Sevilla to stay out of the danger zone and try to improve their position to ensure a smoother season, but the risk of relegation is not immediate, making the game more of a challenge to avoid setbacks than a crucial decision.

Osasuna: Sitting in 15th place with 11 points, Osasuna is a bit closer to the relegation zone, which starts at 18th place with 9 points, so this match carries more weight for the club. This game can be seen as an important opportunity for Osasuna to try to distance itself from the threat of the relegation zone, securing valuable points to further escape the fight against relegation.

Summary: The game has moderate importance for both teams, being slightly more crucial for Osasuna, which is closer to the relegation zone. For Sevilla, the game is a chance to maintain stability and stay away from danger. Therefore, the match is relevant for both, mainly in the battle to avoid greater risks in the final rounds.

Tips for the 1×2 market for Sevilla x Osasuna

Is it a good idea to bet on Sevilla?

🔵 Sevilla: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 46.37% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.11. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 460 times – profiting $510.60;
• And would lose other 540 times – losing -$540.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$29.40.

Is it worth betting on draw?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 30.53% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.20. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 310 times – this would give you a profit of $682.00
• And would lose other 690 times – losing -$690.00 with them.

Although this bet has some value, notice that the expected profit is just 💰$8.00, which is not worth the risk in our point of view.

Is it worth betting on Osasuna?

🔴 Osasuna: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 23.1%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.50. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 230 times – this would give you a profit of $575.00
• And would lose other 770 times – losing -$770.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$195.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Sevilla x Osasuna

Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.75 Sevilla
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Sevilla x Osasuna

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.75 Sevilla, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.25 Sevilla.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.50, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.25 Sevilla.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Sevilla x Osasuna

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.50 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.25 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.