SP Villafranca x CD Extremadura Betting tips for January 12 in Spain Tercera Group 14

Our betting tip for SP Villafranca x CD Extremadura, Sunday, 12/1/2025

📅 12/1/2025 11:30

SP Villafranca 2.32

X 3.00

CD Extremadura 2.85

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for SP Villafranca x CD Extremadura:

👎 Unfortunately, we do not have any positive expected value tips for SP Villafranca x CD Extremadura

Some important points for the tip for SP Villafranca x CD Extremadura: 👉 If you had bet $100 on SP Villafranca in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-23.0. 👉 SP Villafranca did not concede a goal in the last 3 matches as home team. 👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team, SP Villafranca scored at least 2 goal(s). 👉 SP Villafranca is good playing home: it has 3 wins in a row in its last matches at home.

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Analysis from SP Villafranca x CD Extremadura for the Spain Tercera Group 14 – 12 of January

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between SP Villafranca and CD Extremadura.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1244844 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the 1×2 market for SP Villafranca x CD Extremadura

Is it worth betting on SP Villafranca?

🔵 SP Villafranca: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 39.99% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.32. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 400 times – having a profit of $528.00;
• And would have lost other 600 times – with a loss of -$600.00 because of them.

Even if it is a positive expected value bet, the expected profit is just 💰$72.00 which is not worth the risk in our opinion.

Is it worth betting on draw?

⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 26.68%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.00. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 270 times – this would give you a profit of $540.00
• And would lose other 730 times – having a loss of -$730.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$190.00.

Is betting on CD Extremadura worth it?

🔴 CD Extremadura: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 33.33% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.85. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 330 times – profiting $610.50;
• And would lose other 670 times – having a loss of -$670.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$59.50.

Handicaps analysis for the match SP Villafranca x CD Extremadura

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.25 SP Villafranca
⚽ Expected goals: 2.25 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for SP Villafranca x CD Extremadura

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.25 SP Villafranca, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.25 SP Villafranca.

The handicap that our algorithm found is the same as the bookies, which means that there is not any value to bet on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for SP Villafranca x CD Extremadura

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.25 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.25 goals.

The handicap that our algorithm found is the same as the bookies, which means that there is not any value to bet on the Goals Handicap market.