📊 Check out the analysis on Betfellows for this match: Full prognostic for STK Muangnont FC x Bangkok FC
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Analysis from STK Muangnont FC x Bangkok FC for the Thailand Division 3 – 22 of January
🏟️ STK Muangnont FC X Bangkok FC – Thailand Division 3
Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for STK Muangnont FC x Bangkok FC right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.
Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 290605 matches on the betting prognostics platform Betfellows , in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:
Tips for the Match Odds market for STK Muangnont FC x Bangkok FC
Is betting on STK Muangnont FC worth it?
🔵 STK Muangnont FC: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 11.56%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 4.32. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 120 times – profiting $398.40;
- And would have lost other 880 times – with a loss of -$880.00 because of them.
That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$481.60.
Is betting on draw worth it?
⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 28.74% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.52. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would hit 290 times – profiting $730.80;
- And would lose other 710 times – having a loss of -$710.00 with them.
Although this bet has some value, notice that the expected profit is just 💰$20.80, which is not worth the risk in our point of view.
Is it a good idea to bet on Bangkok FC?
🔴 Bangkok FC: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 59.7% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.72. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 600 times – this would give you a profit of $429.00
- And would have lost other 400 times – with a loss of -$400.00 because of them.
It is a low stake bet, since after all you would have an final expected profit of just 💰$29.00. Which is not even that worthy considering the risk!
Handicaps analysis for the match STK Muangnont FC x Bangkok FC
Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.
Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.25 STK Muangnont FC
⚽ Expected goals: 2.25 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for STK Muangnont FC x Bangkok FC
⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is +0.25 STK Muangnont FC and the available handicap to bet at the moment is +1.0 STK Muangnont FC.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.75. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: +1.0 STK Muangnont FC.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for STK Muangnont FC x Bangkok FC
⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.25 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.50 goals.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: – 2.50 goals.
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Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.> Check other content created by Humberto Alves