Sunderland x Derby Betting tips for October 1 in England Championship

Our betting tip for Sunderland x Derby, Tuesday, 1/10/2024

📅 1/10/2024 15:45

Sunderland 1.73

X 3.70

Derby 4.75

This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for Sunderland x Derby:

🔮 Derby wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Derby, you can win up to $2375.00!

Make this bet on Bet365 now!

Or access: https://www.bet365.com 

The main points for the tip for Sunderland x Derby: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Derby in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-500. 👉 Sunderland did not concede a goal in the last 4 matches as home team. 👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team, Sunderland scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 Sunderland is good playing home: it has 4 wins in a row in its last matches at home.

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Analysis from Sunderland x Derby for the England Championship – 1 of October

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Sunderland x Derby right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1192611 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Tips for the Match Odds market for Sunderland x Derby

Is it worth betting on Sunderland?

🔵 Sunderland: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 53.84% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 1.73. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 540 times – having a profit of $394.20;
• And would lose other 460 times – losing -$460.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$65.80.

Is betting on draw worth it?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 23.22% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.70. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 230 times – profiting $621.00;
• And would lose other 770 times – losing -$770.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$149.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on Derby?

🔴 Derby: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 22.94% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 4.75. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 230 times – profiting $862.50;
• And would lose other 770 times – losing -$770.00 with them.

So this is a value bet. After all, at the end of these bets, you would have an expected profit of 💰$92.50.

Handicaps analysis for the match Sunderland x Derby

The handicap market is also very searched for by bettors in professional bookmakers and our model can help you with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.25 Sunderland
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Sunderland x Derby

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.25 Sunderland, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.75 Sunderland.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.75 Derby.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Sunderland x Derby

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.50 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.50 goals.

The handicap that our algorithm found is the same as the bookies, which means that there is not any value to bet on the Goals Handicap market.