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Home » Predictions » Others » Tapatio x Club Celaya Betting tips for November 2 in Mexico Liga de Expansion
Saturday, 02 November 2024, 01h00 Mexico Liga de Expansion
Tapatio Tapatio
PREDICTION Draw Match Probability 35% 1 X 2
Club Celaya Club Celaya
ODD: @3.25 Don't miss this prediction!

Tapatio x Club Celaya Betting tips for November 2 in Mexico Liga de Expansion

Our betting tip for Tapatio x Club Celaya, Saturday, 2/11/2024
📅 2/11/2024
01:00
Tapatio Tapatio
2.28
X
3.25
Club Celaya Club Celaya
2.90

Our algorithm has selected this tip for Tapatio x Club Celaya:

🔮 Tied Match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on a tie, you can win up to $1625.00!

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Some important points for the tip for Tapatio x Club Celaya:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Tapatio in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $128.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Club Celaya in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-305.0.
👉 In the last 6 matches as the home team, Tapatio scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team against Club Celaya, Tapatio scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 7 matches as the away team, Club Celaya conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 Tapatio has not lost any of the last 5 head-to-head matches against Club Celaya playing at home.

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Summary

Looking for more options of bookmakers for your bet on Tapatio x Club Celaya?

If you want to take a look at more options of betting websites, we, from the Clube, have listed our favorites for you. Right below you can check the best kenyan betting sites from 2024, carefully analysed by us. Pick yours and start betting now on Tapatio x Club Celaya:

Analysis from Tapatio x Club Celaya for the Mexico Liga de Expansion – 2 of November

🏟️ Tapatio X Club Celaya – Mexico Liga de Expansion
📅 2 of November, 2024 – 01:00
🔵 Tapatio – Winning probability: 33.97% | Fair line: 2.94
Tied game – Probability of tied match: 35.13% | Fair line: 2.85
🔴 Club Celaya – Winning probability: 30.90% | Fair line: 3.24
⚖ Handicap 1×2: 0.0 Tapatio
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals
⛳ Expected corner kicks: 9.25 corner kicks

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Tapatio x Club Celaya right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1213888 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the Match Odds market for Tapatio x Club Celaya

Should you bet on Tapatio?

🔵 Tapatio: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 33.97% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.28. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

  • Would hit 340 times – profiting $435.20;
  • And would lose other 660 times – losing -$660.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$224.80.

Is betting on draw worth it?

draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 35.13% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.25. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would have hit 350 times – having a profit of $787.50;
  • And would have lost other 650 times – with a loss of -$650.00 because of them.

So this is a value bet. After all, at the end of these bets, you would have an expected profit of 💰$137.50.

Is it worth betting on Club Celaya?

🔴 Club Celaya: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 30.9% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.90. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 310 times – this would give you a profit of $589.00
  • And would lose other 690 times – losing -$690.00 with them.

Even if it is a positive expected value bet, the expected profit is just 💰$101.00 which is not worth the risk in our opinion.

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Handicaps analysis for the match Tapatio x Club Celaya

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: 0.0 Tapatio
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Tapatio x Club Celaya

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 0.0 Tapatio, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.25 Tapatio.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.25 Club Celaya.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Tapatio x Club Celaya

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 3.00 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.50 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.50 goals.

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Written by

Autor
Humberto Alves

Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.

> Check other content created by Humberto Alves
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