📊 Check out the analysis on Betfellows for this match: Full prognostic for Tapatio x Venados FC
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Analysis from Tapatio x Venados FC for the Mexico Liga de Expansion – 20 of January
🏟️ Tapatio X Venados FC – Mexico Liga de Expansion
Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Tapatio x Venados FC right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.
To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 290148 matches from Betfellows database, our collaborative prediction platform, seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:
Tips for the 1×2 market for Tapatio x Venados FC
Is it worth betting on Tapatio?
🔵 Tapatio: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 38.46%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.40. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 380 times – profiting $532.00;
- And would lose other 620 times – losing -$620.00 with them.
Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$88.00.
Should you bet on draw?
⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 34.95% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.12. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would have hit 350 times – having a profit of $743.75;
- And would lose other 650 times – losing -$650.00 with them.
That is why this is a value bet. In the end, you would have had a final profit of 💰$93.75.
Should you bet on Venados FC?
🔴 Venados FC: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 26.59%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.75. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 270 times – profiting $472.50;
- And would have lost other 730 times – with a loss of -$730.00 because of them.
So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$257.50.
Handicaps analysis for the match Tapatio x Venados FC
Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on soccer betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..
These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.75 Tapatio
⚽ Expected goals: 2.25 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Tapatio x Venados FC
⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -0.75 Tapatio and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 0.0 Tapatio.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.75. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.0 Tapatio.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Tapatio x Venados FC
⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.25 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.25 goals.
The handicap that our algorithm found is the same as the bookies, which means that there is not any value to bet on the Goals Handicap market.
Our tips are also on YouTube
Our tipsters are also on our betting tips channel on YouTube analysing the main bets for Thursday. Right above you can check our latest predictions and do not forget to subscribe to our channel!
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Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.> Check other content created by Humberto Alves