UCAM Murcia CF x Xerez CD Betting tips for January 12 in Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 4

Our betting tip for UCAM Murcia CF x Xerez CD, Sunday, 12/1/2025

📅 12/1/2025 16:00

UCAM Murcia CF 1.96

X 2.90

Xerez CD 3.96

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for UCAM Murcia CF x Xerez CD:

👎 Umm…too bad! We did not find any positive expected value bets for UCAM Murcia CF x Xerez CD

Important information for your tip for UCAM Murcia CF x Xerez CD: 👉 If you had bet $100 on UCAM Murcia CF in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $102.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Xerez CD in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $50.0. 👉 In the last 7 matches as the home team, UCAM Murcia CF scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 3 matches as the away team, Xerez CD scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 3 UCAM Murcia CF matches as the home team, it finished under 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 7 Xerez CD matches as the away team, it finished under 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 3 road matches, Xerez CD has not lost any of them.

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Analysis from UCAM Murcia CF x Xerez CD for the Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 4 – 12 of January

When the best bet on UCAM Murcia CF x Xerez CD is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1244844 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Tips for the Match Odds market for UCAM Murcia CF x Xerez CD

Is betting on UCAM Murcia CF worth it?

🔵 UCAM Murcia CF: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 60.18% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.96. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 600 times – this would give you a profit of $576.00
• And would lose other 400 times – losing -$400.00 with them.

Although this bet has some value, notice that the expected profit is just 💰$176.00, which is not worth the risk in our point of view.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 27.86% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.90. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 280 times – having a profit of $532.00;
• And would lose other 720 times – having a loss of -$720.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$188.00.

Should you bet on Xerez CD?

🔴 Xerez CD: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 11.96% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.96. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 120 times – having a profit of $355.20;
• And would lose other 880 times – having a loss of -$880.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$524.80.

Handicaps analysis for the match UCAM Murcia CF x Xerez CD

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.25 UCAM Murcia CF
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for UCAM Murcia CF x Xerez CD

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.25 UCAM Murcia CF, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.25 UCAM Murcia CF. As the handicap available on the market is the same as that indicated by our robot, we will do nothing since there is not value bets on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for UCAM Murcia CF x Xerez CD

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.50 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.00 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.50, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.00 goals.