UD Leiria x Maritimo Betting tips for September 29 in Portugal Segunda Liga

Our betting tip for UD Leiria x Maritimo, Sunday, 29/9/2024

📅 29/9/2024 11:30

UD Leiria 2.38

X 3.19

Maritimo 2.75

This is the bet from our artificial intelligence for UD Leiria x Maritimo:

👎 Unfortunately, we do not have any positive expected value tips for UD Leiria x Maritimo

Important information for your tip for UD Leiria x Maritimo: 👉 If you had bet $100 on UD Leiria in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-90.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Maritimo in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-98.0. 👉 In the last 6 matches as the away team, Maritimo scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 4 Maritimo matches as the away team, it finished over 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team, UD Leiria conceded at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 4 matches as the away team, Maritimo conceded at least 1 goal(s).

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Analysis from UD Leiria x Maritimo for the Portugal Segunda Liga – 29 of September

When the best bet on UD Leiria x Maritimo is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1190630 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the 1×2 market for UD Leiria x Maritimo

Is it worth betting on UD Leiria?

🔵 UD Leiria: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 38.99%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.38. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 390 times – having a profit of $538.20;
• And would lose other 610 times – having a loss of -$610.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$71.80.

Is it worth betting on draw?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 23.24% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.19. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 230 times – profiting $503.70;
• And would lose other 770 times – losing -$770.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$266.30.

Is betting on Maritimo worth it?

🔴 Maritimo: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 37.77% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.75. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 380 times – having a profit of $665.00;
• And would lose other 620 times – having a loss of -$620.00 with them.

Even if it is a positive expected value bet, the expected profit is just 💰$45.00 which is not worth the risk in our opinion.

Handicaps analysis for the match UD Leiria x Maritimo

Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: 0.0 UD Leiria
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for UD Leiria x Maritimo

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 0.0 UD Leiria and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.25 UD Leiria.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.25 Maritimo.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for UD Leiria x Maritimo

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.75 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.25 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.50, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.