Universidad Catolica x Union Espanola Betting tips for September 29 in Chile Primera Division

Our betting tip for Universidad Catolica x Union Espanola, Sunday, 29/9/2024

📅 29/9/2024 20:00

Universidad Catolica 1.82

X 3.45

Union Espanola 4.00

This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for Universidad Catolica x Union Espanola:

👎 Unfortunately, we do not have any positive expected value tips for Universidad Catolica x Union Espanola

The main points for the tip for Universidad Catolica x Union Espanola: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Universidad Catolica in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $50.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Union Espanola in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-250.0. 👉 In the last 7 matches as the home team, Universidad Catolica scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team against Union Espanola, Universidad Catolica scored at least 2 goal(s). 👉 In the last 3 Universidad Catolica matches as the home team, it finished over 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 3 head-to-head matches between Universidad Catolica x Union Espanola, with Universidad Catolica as the home team, they finished over 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 3 matches as the away team, Union Espanola conceded at least 2 goal(s). 👉 Playing as the home team, Universidad Catolica conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 4 head-to-head against Union Espanola. 👉 Universidad Catolica has not lost any of the last 3 head-to-head matches against Union Espanola playing at home.

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Analysis from Universidad Catolica x Union Espanola for the Chile Primera Division – 29 of September

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Universidad Catolica x Union Espanola right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1191083 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Universidad Catolica x Union Espanola

Is it worth betting on Universidad Catolica?

🔵 Universidad Catolica: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 47.13% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 1.82. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 470 times – this would give you a profit of $385.40
• And would lose other 530 times – having a loss of -$530.00 with them.

Although this bet has some value, notice that the expected profit is just 💰$144.60, which is not worth the risk in our point of view.

Is it worth betting on draw?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 24.51% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.45. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 250 times – having a profit of $612.50;
• And would have lost other 750 times – with a loss of -$750.00 because of them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$137.50.

Should you bet on Union Espanola?

🔴 Union Espanola: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 28.36% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 4.00. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 280 times – this would give you a profit of $840.00
• And would lose other 720 times – losing -$720.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$120.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Universidad Catolica x Union Espanola

Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.25 Universidad Catolica
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Universidad Catolica x Union Espanola

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -0.25 Universidad Catolica and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.5 Universidad Catolica.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.5 Union Espanola.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Universidad Catolica x Union Espanola

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 3.00 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.50 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.50 goals.