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Home » Predictions » US Lusitanos Saint-Maur x Gueugnon Betting tips for January 11 in France National 3
Saturday, 11 January 2025, 17h00 France National 3
US Lusitanos Saint-Maur US Lusitanos Saint-Maur
PREDICTION US Lusitanos Saint-Maur wins Probability 70% 1 X 2
Gueugnon Gueugnon
ODD: @1.55 Don't miss this prediction!

US Lusitanos Saint-Maur x Gueugnon Betting tips for January 11 in France National 3

Our betting tip for US Lusitanos Saint-Maur x Gueugnon, Saturday, 11/1/2025
📅 11/1/2025
17:00
US Lusitanos Saint-Maur US Lusitanos Saint-Maur
1.55
X
3.65
Gueugnon Gueugnon
5.13

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for US Lusitanos Saint-Maur x Gueugnon:

🔮 US Lusitanos Saint-Maur wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on US Lusitanos Saint-Maur, you can win up to $775.00!

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Some important points for the tip for US Lusitanos Saint-Maur x Gueugnon:

👉 If you had bet $100 on US Lusitanos Saint-Maur in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $198.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Gueugnon in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-150.0.
👉 In the last 4 matches as the home team, US Lusitanos Saint-Maur scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 4 Gueugnon matches as the away team, it finished under 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 4 matches as the home team, US Lusitanos Saint-Maur conceded at least 1 goal(s).

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Summary

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Analysis from US Lusitanos Saint-Maur x Gueugnon for the France National 3 – 11 of January

🏟️ US Lusitanos Saint-Maur X Gueugnon – France National 3
📅 11 of January, 2025 – 17:00
🔵 US Lusitanos Saint-Maur – Winning probability: 70.68% | Fair line: 1.41
Tied game – Probability of tied match: 21.71% | Fair line: 4.61
🔴 Gueugnon – Winning probability: 7.60% | Fair line: 13.15
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -1.0 US Lusitanos Saint-Maur
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals
⛳ Expected corner kicks: 9.75 corner kicks

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for US Lusitanos Saint-Maur x Gueugnon right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1244516 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the Match Odds market for US Lusitanos Saint-Maur x Gueugnon

Should you bet on US Lusitanos Saint-Maur?

🔵 US Lusitanos Saint-Maur: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 70.68% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.55. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 710 times – this would give you a profit of $390.50
  • And would lose other 290 times – having a loss of -$290.00 with them.

That is why this is a value bet. In the end, you would have had a final profit of 💰$100.50.

Should you bet on draw?

draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 21.71% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.65. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 220 times – profiting $583.00;
  • And would lose other 780 times – having a loss of -$780.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$197.00.

Is it worth betting on Gueugnon?

🔴 Gueugnon: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 7.6% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 5.13. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

  • Would have hit 80 times – having a profit of $330.40;
  • And would lose other 920 times – losing -$920.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$589.60.

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Handicaps analysis for the match US Lusitanos Saint-Maur x Gueugnon

The handicap market is also very searched for by bettors in professional bookmakers and our model can help you with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -1.0 US Lusitanos Saint-Maur
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for US Lusitanos Saint-Maur x Gueugnon

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -1.0 US Lusitanos Saint-Maur, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -1.0 US Lusitanos Saint-Maur.

The handicap that our algorithm found is the same as the bookies, which means that there is not any value to bet on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for US Lusitanos Saint-Maur x Gueugnon

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.75 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.50 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.50 goals.

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Written by

Autor
Humberto Alves

Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.

> Check other content created by Humberto Alves
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