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Home » Predictions » Others » Velez Sarsfield x Sarmiento Betting tips for April 15 in Argentina Liga Profesional
Tuesday, 15 April 2025, 00h15 Argentina Liga Profesional
Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield
PREDICTION Velez Sarsfield wins Probability 73% 1 X 2
Sarmiento Sarmiento
ODD: @1.72 Don't miss this prediction!

Velez Sarsfield x Sarmiento Betting tips for April 15 in Argentina Liga Profesional

Our betting tip for Velez Sarsfield x Sarmiento, Tuesday, 15/4/2025
📅 15/4/2025
00:15
Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield
1.72
X
3.30
Sarmiento Sarmiento
5.00

This is the bet from our artificial intelligence for Velez Sarsfield x Sarmiento:

🔮 Velez Sarsfield wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Velez Sarsfield, you can win up to $860.00!

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Some important points for the tip for Velez Sarsfield x Sarmiento:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Velez Sarsfield in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-2.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Sarmiento in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-500.
👉 In the last 4 matches as the home team against Sarmiento, Velez Sarsfield scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 Velez Sarsfield is a team that likes ball possession. In its last 3 home matches, it had at least 62.00% of possession.
👉 Velez Sarsfield has not lost any of the last 4 head-to-head matches against Sarmiento playing at home.

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Summary

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Analysis from Velez Sarsfield x Sarmiento for the Argentina Liga Profesional – 15 of April

🏟️ Velez Sarsfield X Sarmiento – Argentina Liga Profesional
📅 15 of April, 2025 – 00:15
🔵 Velez Sarsfield – Winning probability: 73.41% | Fair line: 1.36
Tied game – Probability of tied match: 18.78% | Fair line: 5.33
🔴 Sarmiento – Winning probability: 7.81% | Fair line: 12.8
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.5 Velez Sarsfield
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals
⛳ Expected corner kicks: 9.25 corner kicks

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Velez Sarsfield and Sarmiento.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1304036 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Tips for the Match Odds market for Velez Sarsfield x Sarmiento

Is it a good idea to bet on Velez Sarsfield?

🔵 Velez Sarsfield: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 73.41% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.72. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would have hit 730 times – having a profit of $525.60;
  • And would have lost other 270 times – with a loss of -$270.00 because of them.

It is a value bet, since after all you would have an expected final profit of 💰$255.60.

Is it worth betting on draw?

draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 18.78%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.30. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

  • Would have hit 190 times – having a profit of $437.00;
  • And would have lost other 810 times – with a loss of -$810.00 because of them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$373.00.

Is it worth betting on Sarmiento?

🔴 Sarmiento: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 7.81% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 5.00. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

  • Would have hit 80 times – having a profit of $320.00;
  • And would lose other 920 times – losing -$920.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$600.00.

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Handicaps analysis for the match Velez Sarsfield x Sarmiento

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.5 Velez Sarsfield
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Velez Sarsfield x Sarmiento

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -0.5 Velez Sarsfield and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.5 Velez Sarsfield.

Since the handicap offered by bookmakers is the same as the one we got with our model, there is not any value bets on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Velez Sarsfield x Sarmiento

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.50 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.00 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.00 goals.

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Written by
Autor
Humberto Alves

Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.

> Check other content created by Humberto Alves
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