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Home » Predictions » Vibonese x ASD Castrumfavara Betting tips for February 2 in Italy Serie D
Sunday, 02 February 2025, 13h30 Italy Serie D
Vibonese Vibonese
PREDICTION No tip
ASD Castrumfavara ASD Castrumfavara
Don't miss this prediction!

Vibonese x ASD Castrumfavara Betting tips for February 2 in Italy Serie D

Our betting tip for Vibonese x ASD Castrumfavara, Sunday, 2/2/2025
📅 2/2/2025
13:30
Vibonese Vibonese
1.62
X
3.50
ASD Castrumfavara ASD Castrumfavara
4.75

This is the bet from our artificial intelligence for Vibonese x ASD Castrumfavara:

👎 Umm…what a pity! We do not have any positive expected value tips for Vibonese x ASD Castrumfavara

Important information for your tip for Vibonese x ASD Castrumfavara:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Vibonese in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-193.0.
👉 ASD CastrumFavara did not concede a goal in the last 3 matches as away team.
👉 In the last 4 ASD CastrumFavara matches as the away team, it finished under 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 8 road matches, ASD CastrumFavara has not lost any of them.

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Summary

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Analysis from Vibonese x ASD Castrumfavara for the Italy Serie D – 2 of February

🏟️ Vibonese X ASD Castrumfavara – Italy Serie D
📅 2 of February, 2025 – 13:30
🔵 Vibonese – Winning probability: 60.87% | Fair line: 1.64
Tied game – Probability of tied match: 28.92% | Fair line: 3.46
🔴 ASD Castrumfavara – Winning probability: 10.21% | Fair line: 9.8
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -1.0 Vibonese
⚽ Expected goals: 2.25 goals
⛳ Expected corner kicks: 9.00 corner kicks

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Vibonese x ASD Castrumfavara right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1255121 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Vibonese x ASD Castrumfavara

Should you bet on Vibonese?

🔵 Vibonese: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 60.87%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 1.62. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

  • Would hit 610 times – this would give you a profit of $378.20
  • And would lose other 390 times – losing -$390.00 with them.

It is a low stake bet, since after all you would have an final expected profit of just 💰$11.80. Which is not even that worthy considering the risk!

Should you bet on draw?

draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 28.92% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.50. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 290 times – this would give you a profit of $725.00
  • And would have lost other 710 times – with a loss of -$710.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$15.00.

Is it worth betting on ASD Castrumfavara?

🔴 ASD Castrumfavara: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 10.21% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 4.75. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 100 times – profiting $375.00;
  • And would lose other 900 times – having a loss of -$900.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$525.00.

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Handicaps analysis for the match Vibonese x ASD Castrumfavara

Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -1.0 Vibonese
⚽ Expected goals: 2.25 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Vibonese x ASD Castrumfavara

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -1.0 Vibonese and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.75 Vibonese.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.75 Vibonese.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Vibonese x ASD Castrumfavara

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.25 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.50 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: – 2.50 goals.

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Written by
Autor
Humberto Alves

Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.

> Check other content created by Humberto Alves
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