Vila Nova x America MG Betting tips for June 13 in Brazil Serie B
| 📅 13/6/2025 22:00 |
 Vila Nova1.98 |
X 3.10 |
America MG  3.85 |
Our algorithm has selected this tip for Vila Nova x America MG:
🔮 Vila Nova wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Vila Nova, you can win up to $990.00!
Important information for your tip for Vila Nova x America MG:
👉 If you had bet $100 on Vila Nova in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $160.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on America MG in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-500.
👉 America MG did not score any goals in the last 7 matches as away team.
👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team against America MG, Vila Nova scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 America MG matches as the away team, it finished under 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 4 head-to-head matches between Vila Nova x America MG, with Vila Nova as the home team, they finished under 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team, Vila Nova conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 7 matches as the away team, America MG conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 Vila Nova has not lost any of the last 3 head-to-head matches against America MG playing at home.
👉 It is not a good time for America MG as away team: it comes from 7 losses in a row in its last away matches.
🤖 Critical analysis from ChatGPT on our prediction for Vila Nova vs America MG:
Bets Kenya arrives with a reasonable performance at home, having won 3 of the last 5 games and maintaining a balanced average of goals scored and conceded (1 goal per game).
Meanwhile, America MG faces serious difficulties away, with no wins in the last 5 games and conceding many goals (8 in total), despite having greater ball possession.
The median odds reflect this scenario, favoring Vila Nova with an adjusted probability around 45%, a draw at about 29%, and a victory for America MG just below 25%.
Our internal model reinforces this view, indicating positive value in betting on the home team’s victory with an estimated EV of +4.54%.
Comparing the analyses, I agree that the best bet here is on Vila Nova to win.
The home team has shown more offensive and defensive consistency recently, while America MG cannot convert its possession into goals away.
Therefore, betting on Vila Nova’s victory seems to be the safest and most profitable choice for value-seeking bettors! ⚽💰
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Analysis from Vila Nova x America MG for the Brazil Serie B – 13 of June
🏟️ Vila Nova X America MG – Brazil Serie B
📅 13 of June, 2025 – 22:00
🔵 Vila Nova – Winning probability: 53.79% | Fair line: 1.86
⚪ Tied game – Probability of tied match: 27.25% | Fair line: 3.67
🔴 America MG – Winning probability: 18.96% | Fair line: 5.27
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.25 Vila Nova
⚽ Expected goals: 2.25 goals
⛳ Expected corner kicks: 9.50 corner kicks
Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Vila Nova x America MG right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.
And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1340108 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:
Tips for the Match Odds market for Vila Nova x America MG
Is it a good idea to bet on Vila Nova?
🔵 Vila Nova: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 53.79% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.98. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 540 times – this would give you a profit of $529.20
- And would lose other 460 times – having a loss of -$460.00 with them.
That is why this is a value bet. In the end, you would have had a final profit of 💰$69.20.
Is it a good idea to bet on draw?
⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 27.25%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.10. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 270 times – this would give you a profit of $567.00
- And would have lost other 730 times – with a loss of -$730.00 because of them.
So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$163.00.
Should you bet on America MG?
🔴 America MG: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 18.96% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.85. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 190 times – this would give you a profit of $541.50
- And would have lost other 810 times – with a loss of -$810.00 because of them.
So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$268.50.
Handicaps analysis for the match Vila Nova x America MG
The handicap market is also very searched for by bettors in professional bookmakers and our model can help you with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.
Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.25 Vila Nova
⚽ Expected goals: 2.25 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Vila Nova x America MG
⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.25 Vila Nova, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.5 Vila Nova.
Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.5 America MG.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Vila Nova x America MG
⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.25 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.00 goals.
Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.00 goals.
