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Home » Predictions » Others » Villa Nova x Itabirito Betting tips for February 5 in Brazil Campeonato Mineiro
Wednesday, 05 February 2025, 23h00 Brazil Campeonato Mineiro
Villa Nova Villa Nova
PREDICTION Itabirito Wins Probability 43% 1 X 2
Itabirito Itabirito
ODD: @3.07 Don't miss this prediction!

Villa Nova x Itabirito Betting tips for February 5 in Brazil Campeonato Mineiro

Our betting tip for Villa Nova x Itabirito, Wednesday, 5/2/2025
📅 5/2/2025
23:00
Villa Nova Villa Nova
2.12
X
3.10
Itabirito Itabirito
3.07

This is the bet from our artificial intelligence for Villa Nova x Itabirito:

🔮 Itabirito wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Itabirito, you can win up to $1535.00!

Or access: https://www.bet365.com
 

The main points for the tip for Villa Nova x Itabirito:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Villa Nova in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-270.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Itabirito in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-230.0.
👉 Villa Nova did not score any goals in the last 3 matches as home team.
👉 In the last 4 Villa Nova matches as the home team, it finished under 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team, Villa Nova conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 7 matches as the away team, Itabirito conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 It is not a good time for Villa Nova as home team: it comes from 3 losses in a row in its last home matches.

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Summary

Do you want more options of bookies to bet on Villa Nova x Itabirito?

If you already have an account on Bet365 or want other options of bookmakers, do not worry! This list below was carefully created taking you into consideration. These are the best betting sites analysed by us in 2025. You just have to click, deposit and bet:

Analysis from Villa Nova x Itabirito for the Brazil Campeonato Mineiro – 5 of February

🏟️ Villa Nova X Itabirito – Brazil Campeonato Mineiro
📅 5 of February, 2025 – 23:00
🔵 Villa Nova – Winning probability: 29.32% | Fair line: 3.41
Tied game – Probability of tied match: 27.15% | Fair line: 3.68
🔴 Itabirito – Winning probability: 43.53% | Fair line: 2.3
⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.5 Villa Nova
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals
⛳ Expected corner kicks: 9.75 corner kicks

When the best bet on Villa Nova x Itabirito is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1257906 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Villa Nova x Itabirito

Should you bet on Villa Nova?

🔵 Villa Nova: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 29.32% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.12. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 290 times – this would give you a profit of $324.80
  • And would lose other 710 times – having a loss of -$710.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$385.20.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 27.15%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.10. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

  • Would have hit 270 times – having a profit of $567.00;
  • And would lose other 730 times – having a loss of -$730.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$163.00.

Is it worth betting on Itabirito?

🔴 Itabirito: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 43.53% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.07. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 440 times – this would give you a profit of $910.80
  • And would lose other 560 times – losing -$560.00 with them.

That is why this is a value bet. In the end, you would have had a final profit of 💰$350.80.

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Handicaps analysis for the match Villa Nova x Itabirito

Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.5 Villa Nova
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Villa Nova x Itabirito

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is +0.5 Villa Nova and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.25 Villa Nova.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.75, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.25 Itabirito.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Villa Nova x Itabirito

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.75 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.25 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.

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Written by

Autor
Humberto Alves

Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.

> Check other content created by Humberto Alves
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