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18/1/2022 16:00 |
 Villarreal B2.00 |
X 3.17 |
CD Castellon  3.52 |
This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for Villarreal B x CD Castellon:
๐ฎ Tied Match
๐ฐ When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on a tie, you can win up to $1582.50!
๐ Check out the full analysis on Betfellows: Prognostic for Villarreal B x CD Castellon
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Analysis from Villarreal B x CD Castellon for the Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 – 18 of January
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๐๏ธ Villarreal B X CD Castellon – Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
When the best bet on Villarreal B x CD Castellon is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.
To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 288868 matches from Betfellows database, our collaborative prediction platform, seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:
Tips for the 1×2 market for Villarreal B x CD Castellon
Is betting on Villarreal B worth it?
๐ต Villarreal B: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 43.98% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.00. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 440 times – profiting $440.00;
- And would lose other 560 times – losing -$560.00 with them.
Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of ๐ฐ-$120.00.
Should you bet on draw?
โช draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 34.12% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.17. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 340 times – this would give you a profit of $736.10
- And would lose other 660 times – having a loss of -$660.00 with them.
That is why this is a value bet. In the end, you would have had a final profit of ๐ฐ$76.10.
Is it worth betting on CD Castellon?
๐ด CD Castellon: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 21.9% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.52. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 220 times – this would give you a profit of $554.40
- And would have lost other 780 times – with a loss of -$780.00 because of them.
We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of ๐ฐ-$225.60.
Handicaps analysis for the match Villarreal B x CD Castellon
Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on soccer betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..
These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:
โ Handicap 1×2: 0.0 Villarreal B
โฝ Expected goals: 3.25 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Villarreal B x CD Castellon
โ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 0.0 Villarreal B and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.5 Villarreal B.
Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.50, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.5 CD Castellon.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Villarreal B x CD Castellon
โฝ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 3.25 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.25 goals.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 1.00. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.
You can check out our tips on YouTube
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Written by
Humberto Alves
Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.
> Check other content created by Humberto Alves
