Villarreal x Las Palmas Betting tips for September 30 in Spain La Liga

Our betting tip for Villarreal x Las Palmas, Monday, 30/9/2024

📅 30/9/2024 16:00

Villarreal 1.49

X 4.33

Las Palmas 6.13

This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for Villarreal x Las Palmas:

🔮 Villarreal wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Villarreal, you can win up to $745.00!

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The main points for the tip for Villarreal x Las Palmas: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Villarreal in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-325.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Las Palmas in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-500. 👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team, Villarreal scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team against Las Palmas, Villarreal scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 5 Villarreal matches as the home team, it finished over 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 3 head-to-head matches between Villarreal x Las Palmas, with Villarreal as the home team, they finished over 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team, Villarreal conceded at least 2 goal(s). 👉 In the last 3 matches as the away team, Las Palmas conceded at least 2 goal(s). 👉 Las Palmas is a team that likes ball possession. In its last 3 away matches, it had at least 60.00% of possession. 👉 It is not a good time for Las Palmas as away team: it comes from 3 losses in a row in its last away matches.

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Analysis from Villarreal x Las Palmas for the Spain La Liga – 30 of September

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Villarreal and Las Palmas.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1191189 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Villarreal x Las Palmas

Is it a good idea to bet on Villarreal?

🔵 Villarreal: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 86.99% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.49. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 870 times – profiting $426.30;
• And would lose other 130 times – losing -$130.00 with them.

So this is a value bet. After all, at the end of these bets, you would have an expected profit of 💰$296.30.

Is it worth betting on draw?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 6.73% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 4.33. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 70 times – this would give you a profit of $233.10
• And would lose other 930 times – having a loss of -$930.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$696.90.

Is betting on Las Palmas worth it?

🔴 Las Palmas: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 6.28%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 6.13. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 60 times – this would give you a profit of $307.80
• And would have lost other 940 times – with a loss of -$940.00 because of them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$632.20.

Handicaps analysis for the match Villarreal x Las Palmas

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.75 Villarreal
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Villarreal x Las Palmas

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.75 Villarreal, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -1.0 Villarreal.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 1.0 Las Palmas.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Villarreal x Las Palmas

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.75 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 3.00 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: – 3.00 goals.