Virtus Francavilla x Matera Betting tips for December 1 in Italy Serie D

Our betting tip for Virtus Francavilla x Matera, Sunday, 1/12/2024

📅 1/12/2024 13:30

Virtus Francavilla 2.05

X 3.00

Matera 3.32

This is the bet from our artificial intelligence for Virtus Francavilla x Matera:

👎 Unfortunately, we did not find any positive expected value bets for Virtus Francavilla x Matera

Important information for your tip for Virtus Francavilla x Matera: 👉 In the last 8 matches as the away team, Matera scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team, Virtus Francavilla conceded at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 5 matches as the away team, Matera conceded at least 1 goal(s).

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Analysis from Virtus Francavilla x Matera for the Italy Serie D – 1 of December

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Virtus Francavilla x Matera right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1230121 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Virtus Francavilla x Matera

Is betting on Virtus Francavilla worth it?

🔵 Virtus Francavilla: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 46.7% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.05. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 470 times – profiting $493.50;
• And would lose other 530 times – having a loss of -$530.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$36.50.

Is betting on draw worth it?

⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 27.2%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.00. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 270 times – having a profit of $540.00;
• And would lose other 730 times – having a loss of -$730.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$190.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on Matera?

🔴 Matera: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 26.1% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.32. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 260 times – having a profit of $603.20;
• And would lose other 740 times – losing -$740.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$136.80.

Handicaps analysis for the match Virtus Francavilla x Matera

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.5 Virtus Francavilla
⚽ Expected goals: 2.00 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Virtus Francavilla x Matera

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.5 Virtus Francavilla, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.25 Virtus Francavilla.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.25 Virtus Francavilla.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Virtus Francavilla x Matera

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.00 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.00 goals.

Since there is not big differences between the handicap offered by bookies and the one suggested by our algorithm, we can consider that there is no value to bet on the Goals Handicap market.