📊 Check out the analysis from this match on Betfellows: Complete prognostic for Wellington Phoenix x Western United FC
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Analysis from Wellington Phoenix x Western United FC for the Australia A-League – 21 of January
🏟️ Wellington Phoenix X Western United FC – Australia A-League
Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Wellington Phoenix x Western United FC right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.
Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 290173 matches on the betting prognostics platform Betfellows , in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:
Tips for the 1×2 market for Wellington Phoenix x Western United FC
Should you bet on Wellington Phoenix?
🔵 Wellington Phoenix: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 33.1%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.85. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would hit 330 times – this would give you a profit of $610.50
- And would have lost other 670 times – with a loss of -$670.00 because of them.
So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$59.50.
Is it worth betting on draw?
⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 33.56%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.64. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would have hit 340 times – having a profit of $897.60;
- And would lose other 660 times – losing -$660.00 with them.
Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$237.60.
Is it a good idea to bet on Western United FC?
🔴 Western United FC: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 33.34%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.25. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would have hit 330 times – having a profit of $412.50;
- And would lose other 670 times – losing -$670.00 with them.
Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$257.50.
Handicaps analysis for the match Wellington Phoenix x Western United FC
Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.
Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: 0.0 Wellington Phoenix
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Wellington Phoenix x Western United FC
⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 0.0 Wellington Phoenix and the available handicap to bet at the moment is +0.25 Wellington Phoenix.
Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: +0.25 Wellington Phoenix.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Wellington Phoenix x Western United FC
⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.75 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.75 goals.
Since there is not big differences between the handicap offered by bookies and the one suggested by our algorithm, we can consider that there is no value to bet on the Goals Handicap market.
You can check out our tips on YouTube
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Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.> Check other content created by Humberto Alves