Xinabajul x Marquense Betting tips for September 29 in Guatemala Liga Nacional

Our betting tip for Xinabajul x Marquense, Sunday, 29/9/2024

📅 29/9/2024 19:00

Xinabajul 1.68

X 3.40

Marquense 4.49

Our algorithm has selected this tip for Xinabajul x Marquense:

👎 Unfortunately, we did not find any positive expected value bets for Xinabajul x Marquense

The main points for the tip for Xinabajul x Marquense: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Xinabajul in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $113.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Marquense in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-372.0. 👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team, Xinabajul scored at least 1 goal(s).

Do you want other options of bookmakers to bet on Xinabajul x Marquense?

If you want to take a look at more options of betting websites, we, from the Clube, have listed our favorites for you. Right below you can check the best kenyan betting sites from 2024, carefully analysed by us. Pick yours and start betting now on Xinabajul x Marquense:

Analysis from Xinabajul x Marquense for the Guatemala Liga Nacional – 29 of September

When the best bet on Xinabajul x Marquense is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1191083 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Xinabajul x Marquense

Is it worth betting on Xinabajul?

🔵 Xinabajul: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 60.76%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 1.68. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 610 times – profiting $414.80;
• And would have lost other 390 times – with a loss of -$390.00 because of them.

Although this bet has some value, notice that the expected profit is just 💰$24.80, which is not worth the risk in our point of view.

Should you bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 25.53% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.40. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 260 times – this would give you a profit of $624.00
• And would have lost other 740 times – with a loss of -$740.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$116.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on Marquense?

🔴 Marquense: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 13.72% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 4.49. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 140 times – this would give you a profit of $488.60
• And would lose other 860 times – losing -$860.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$371.40.

Handicaps analysis for the match Xinabajul x Marquense

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.75 Xinabajul
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Xinabajul x Marquense

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.75 Xinabajul, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.75 Xinabajul.

Since there is not big differences between the handicap offered by bookies and the one suggested by our algorithm, we can consider that there is no value to bet on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Xinabajul x Marquense

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.50 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.25 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.