📊 Check out the analysis on Betfellows for this match: Full prognostic for Zimbabwe x Guinea
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Analysis from Zimbabwe x Guinea for the Africa Cup of Nations – 18 of January
🏟️ Zimbabwe X Guinea – Africa Cup of Nations
Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Zimbabwe x Guinea right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.
Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 288868 matches on the betting prognostics platform Betfellows , in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:
Tips for the 1×2 market for Zimbabwe x Guinea
Should you bet on Zimbabwe?
🔵 Zimbabwe: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 53.97% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 5.46. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 540 times – this would give you a profit of $2408.40
- And would lose other 460 times – losing -$460.00 with them.
So this is a value bet. After all, at the end of these bets, you would have an expected profit of 💰$1948.40.
Should you bet on draw?
⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 11.18% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.35. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would have hit 110 times – having a profit of $258.50;
- And would lose other 890 times – having a loss of -$890.00 with them.
That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$631.50.
Is betting on Guinea worth it?
🔴 Guinea: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 34.86% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.70. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 350 times – profiting $245.00;
- And would lose other 650 times – losing -$650.00 with them.
So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$405.00.
Handicaps analysis for the match Zimbabwe x Guinea
Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on soccer betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..
Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: +1.0 Zimbabwe
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Zimbabwe x Guinea
⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be +1.0 Zimbabwe, and the current handicap offered by bookies is +0.75 Zimbabwe.
Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.75 Guinea.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Zimbabwe x Guinea
⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 3.00 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.00 goals.
Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 1.00, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.00 goals.
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Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.> Check other content created by Humberto Alves