Benfica x Casa Pia Betting tips for November 9 in Portugal Primeira Liga

Our betting tip for Benfica x Casa Pia, Sunday, 9/11/2025

📅 9/11/2025 20:30

Benfica 1.17

X 7.25

Casa Pia 13.75

Our algorithm has selected this tip for Benfica x Casa Pia:

🔮 Benfica wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Benfica, you can win up to $585.00!

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Some important points for the tip for Benfica x Casa Pia:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Benfica in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-131.0.
👉 In the last 4 matches as the home team against Casa Pia, Benfica scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 Casa Pia matches as the away team, it finished over 2.5 goals.
👉 Benfica has not lost any of the last 4 head-to-head matches against Casa Pia playing at home.

🤖 Critical insight from ChatGPT on the prediction for Benfica vs Casa Pia:

Lets analyze the match between Benfica and Casa Pia at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica, also known as Estádio da Luz, which is Benficas usual stadium with a capacity of about 64,600 fans. This gives Benfica a natural advantage of playing at home.

📈 Table analysis: Benfica is in third place in the 2025-26 Primeira Liga, just four points behind leaders Porto and one point behind Sporting. This shows the team is in good form and motivated to keep pressure on the top. Casa Pia is mid-table, seeking to climb positions but without the same urgency or technical quality as the leaders.

The recent performance of the teams reinforces this difference: Benfica has scored an average of 2 goals per game at home in the last five matches (11 goals in 5 games), conceded only 0.6 goals per game (3 goals conceded), won three times and lost once playing at home recently. Additionally, they dominate offensively with an average of 16 shots per game against only 8 conceded, and have greater ball possession (58% vs 39%).

On the other hand, Casa Pia struggles away: scoring just over one goal per match (6 goals in the last five away games) but conceding many (10). They lost three of the last five away matches and havent won any in the last five league games at any location.

The normalization of implicit probabilities based on median odds results in approximately the following fair probabilities:

• Benfica win: ~77%
• Draw: ~12%
• Casa Pia win: ~11%

Thus, the fair odds would be approximately:

• Benfica win: ~1.30
• Draw: ~8.3
• Casa Pia win: ~9.1

However, the final offered odds are even more favorable to Benfica (~1.166), indicating little margin for value in this bet according to our pure calculation.

The prediction from Bets Kenya indicates an almost certain win for the home team (~98%) with very low odds (~1.01), while underestimating the chances of a draw or away win with absurdly high odds (>85). This seems exaggerated since draws happen even with clear favoritism — especially because Casa Pia might try to defend well on the opponents field.

Expected value calculations using final odds versus our fair odds show a moderate positive expected value only for the home team bet (+15%), while draw (-91%) and away (-97%) have clear negative values.

Final analysis:

• Betting on Benficas win makes sense due to their recent offensive/defensive statistical superiority;
• The market odds are low but still offer a reasonable positive expected value;
• Betting on a draw or away win has no value;
• The extreme prediction from Bets Kenya seems exaggerated, ignoring the minimal real chances of a draw or an upset by the visitor;

📰 Important news:
Coach José Mourinho maintains full focus on the club, training intensely with the main squads; this shows strong commitment to maintaining high performance both nationally and internationally.
The recent presidential election promises important future reinforcements like Bernardo Silva if Noronha Lopes is elected — signaling growing ambition.
Casa Pia tries to surprise but faces evident difficulties away from their usual stadium.

📈 Table-based tactical/moral analysis:
Benfica needs to keep accumulating points to pressure leaders Porto and Sporting; their current position motivates seeking secure victories.
Casa Pia aims to improve their standing but faces a much superior technical opponent playing in front of a large Benfica-supporting crowd — an unfavorable scenario for the visitors.

Final suggestion 🏆 : Bet with moderate confidence on Benficas victory, as despite the low odds, there is real value in this bet given the technical/tactical disparity between the teams combined with their historical strength playing at Estádio da Luz!

Do you want other suggestions of bookmakers to bet on Benfica x Casa Pia?

If you want to take a look at more options of betting websites, we, from the Clube, have listed our favorites for you. Right below you can check the best kenyan betting sites from 2025, carefully analysed by us. Pick yours and start betting now on Benfica x Casa Pia:

Analysis from Benfica x Casa Pia for the Portugal Primeira Liga – 9 of November

When the best bet on Benfica x Casa Pia is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1434883 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Latest news on the match between Benfica and Casa Pia

Benfica: Benfica is currently third in the Primeira Liga 2025-26, four points behind leaders Porto and one behind Sporting after ten matches. José Mourinho has been spending most of his days at the clubs training base in Seixal, often joining youth teams for meals from sunrise to sunset. In the Champions League, they suffered a 1-0 home defeat against Bayer Leverkusen, which left them close to the bottom of the overall table but still within the points needed to reach the top 24 and qualify for the knockout stage. Mourinho insists the team can still advance as they prepare for an away match against Ajax on November 25, followed by a home game against Napoli on December 10. In domestic league play, they host Casa Pia on Sunday after a recent 2-0 victory over Santa Clara. The clubs presidential election on November 8 has become a focal point, with candidate Noronha Lopes promising to bring back midfielder Bernardo Silva, currently at Manchester City, if elected. Additionally, Wolverhampton Wanderers is linked to former Benfica coach Rui Vitória as a potential new manager.

Casa Pia: Casa Pia A.C. is ready to face Benfica at Estádio da Luz on Sunday in the 2025-26 Primeira Liga, a key match as Benfica holds third place and seeks to maintain pressure on the leaders, while Casa Pia, positioned mid-table, aims to increase their points and climb the standings. The match follows recent comments from Benfica coach José Mourinho, who confirmed that his team will field young Dahl after a previous mistake, highlighting the importance of the fixture for both teams ambitions in the championship.

Table analysis for the game between Benfica and Casa Pia

Benfica: Benfica is currently in 3rd place with 24 points, strongly fighting for qualification to the UEFA Europa League. Since they are very close to 2nd and 1st place (25 and 28 points respectively), each point in this match is crucial to close the gap and try to move up the table in search of a better spot for European competitions. Therefore, the game against Casa Pia is very important for Benfica to keep their chances alive or even advance in the standings.

Casa Pia: Casa Pia is in 16th position with only 8 points, occupying the relegation playoff zone. The situation is quite delicate, and each match is essential to try to get out of this region that could lead to relegation. The match against Benfica is an important opportunity to earn points and seek to escape this uncomfortable situation at the bottom of the table.

Summary: The match is important for both teams: for Benfica, representing a chance to improve their position in the race for European spots, and for Casa Pia, an opportunity to escape relegation. A game with a lot of pressure and relevance for both! ⚽🔥

Tips for the 1×2 market for Benfica x Casa Pia

Is it worth betting on Benfica?

🔵 Benfica: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 96.04% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 1.17. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 960 times – profiting $163.20;
• And would have lost other 40 times – with a loss of -$40.00 because of them.

It is a value bet, since after all you would have an expected final profit of 💰$123.20.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 2.38%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 7.25. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 20 times – having a profit of $125.00;
• And would have lost other 980 times – with a loss of -$980.00 because of them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$855.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on Casa Pia?

🔴 Casa Pia: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 1.58% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 13.75. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 20 times – profiting $255.00;
• And would lose other 980 times – having a loss of -$980.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$725.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Benfica x Casa Pia

Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -2.0 Benfica
⚽ Expected goals: 3.25 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Benfica x Casa Pia

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -2.0 Benfica and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -2.0 Benfica.

Since the handicap offered by bookmakers is the same as the one we got with our model, there is not any value bets on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Benfica x Casa Pia

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 3.25 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 3.25 goals. As the handicap available on the market is the same as that indicated by our robot, we will do nothing since there is not value bets on the Goals Handicap market.