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15/1/2022 20:30 |
 Estoril2.00 |
X 3.20 |
Arouca  3.90 |
This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for Estoril x Arouca:
๐ฎ Estoril wins the match
๐ฐ When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Estoril, you can win up to $1000.00!
๐ Check out the full analysis on Betfellows: Prognostic for Estoril x Arouca
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Analysis from Estoril x Arouca for the Portugal Primeira Liga – 15 of January
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๐๏ธ Estoril X Arouca – Portugal Primeira Liga |
When the best bet on Estoril x Arouca is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.
Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 287992 matches on the betting prognostics platform Betfellows , in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:
Tips for the 1×2 market for Estoril x Arouca
Is betting on Estoril worth it?
๐ต Estoril: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 57.19%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.00. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 570 times – this would give you a profit of $570.00
- And would lose other 430 times – having a loss of -$430.00 with them.
Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of ๐ฐ$140.00.
Is it worth betting on draw?
โช draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 25.9% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.20. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would have hit 260 times – having a profit of $572.00;
- And would have lost other 740 times – with a loss of -$740.00 because of them.
So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of ๐ฐ-$168.00.
Is it worth betting on Arouca?
๐ด Arouca: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 16.91% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.90. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would hit 170 times – profiting $493.00;
- And would have lost other 830 times – with a loss of -$830.00 because of them.
So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of ๐ฐ-$337.00.
Handicaps analysis for the match Estoril x Arouca
The handicap market is also very searched for by bettors in professional bookmakers and our model can help you with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.
Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:
โ Handicap 1×2: -0.75 Estoril
โฝ Expected goals: 2.75 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Estoril x Arouca
โ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.75 Estoril, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.5 Estoril.
Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.5 Estoril.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Estoril x Arouca
โฝ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.75 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.25 goals.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.
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Written by
Humberto Alves
Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.
> Check other content created by Humberto Alves
