Estoril x Tondela Betting tips for February 7 in Portugal Primeira Liga
| 📅 7/2/2026 18:00 |
 Estoril1.91 |
X 3.50 |
Tondela  3.80 |
Our algorithm has selected this tip for Estoril x Tondela:
🔮 Tondela wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Tondela, you can win up to $1900.00!
Important information for your tip for Estoril x Tondela:
👉 If you had bet $100 on Estoril in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $525.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Tondela in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $50.0.
👉 In the last 7 matches as the home team, Estoril scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team against Tondela, Estoril scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 matches as the away team, Tondela conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 Estoril is good playing home: it has 3 wins in a row in its last matches at home.
👉 Estoril has not lost any of the last 5 head-to-head matches against Tondela playing at home.
👉 It is not a good time for Tondela as away team: it comes from 3 losses in a row in its last away matches.
🤖 ChatGPT analysis on the prediction for Estoril vs Tondela:
Lets analyze the match between Estoril and Tondela at António Coimbra da Mota Stadium, home of Estoril. The stadium is the usual venue for Estorils games, which favors the home team due to familiarity and fan support.
📈 Table analysis: Estoril is in 7th place in the Primeira Liga with 29 points, showing solid performance and aiming to consolidate in the top part of the table. Tondela is in the relegation zone with only 13 points, urgently needing a win to escape this tough situation. This difference creates extra motivation for both teams: Estoril wants to maintain their good home form, while Tondela needs points to avoid relegation.
📰 Recent news: Estoril comes off a convincing 4-2 victory against Santa Clara, with their top scorer Yanis Begraoui (14 goals) shining. This shows an efficient attack and high confidence. Conversely, Tondela drew goalless at home against Benfica, with low possession (23%) and only 1 shot on target, indicating recent offensive struggles even against strong opponents.
Statistical analysis:
- Estoril: In the last 5 home games, they scored an average of 2.6 goals per game (13/5) and conceded 1.6; they have a good offensive volume with an average of 12 shots, 5 on target;
- Tondela: In recent away games, they scored a low average (~0.8 goals) and conceded more (~1.8); they have less possession (44%) and fewer accurate shots;
Calculating fair odds based on median odds:
- Implicit probabilities: Estoril win ≈ 52%, Draw ≈ 28%, Tondela win ≈ 26%
- Adjusting for bookmaker margins, approximate probabilities are: Estoril win ≈ 47%, Draw ≈ 25%, Tondela win ≈ 28%
Given their technical superiority, recent better campaign, and clear advantage playing at their usual stadium, my estimate adjusts the probabilities to roughly: Estoril win ~55%, Draw ~25%, Tondela win ~20%. This suggests fair odds around:
- Estoril: Fair odds ≈ 1.82
- Draw: Fair odds ≈ 4.0
- Tondela: Fair odds ≈ 5.0
Analyzing the final odds offered by bookmakers:
- Home win is priced at about @1.86 – close to my fair odds;
- Draw @3.82 – below my estimated odds;
- Visitor win @4.31 – well below my calculated fair odds considering their recent offensive fragility.
Expected value (EV) calculation: The highest positive expectation according to our model is on the “visitor win” (+14%), but my analysis suggests this probability might be overestimated due to their recent offensive fragility outside their domain.
Final suggestion 🏆 : A safe bet would be on Estoril Praia, as they have better overall performance + clear advantage playing at their traditional stadium + high motivation due to their mid-table position.
The odds @1.86 offer reasonable value close to the calculated fair odds (@1.82), making it a balanced bet with minimal risk.
I would avoid betting on the draw or visitor win due to the low realistic expected value after detailed analysis of technical data and recent news.
Do you want more options of bookies to bet on Estoril x Tondela?
If you want to take a look at more options of betting websites, we, from the Clube, have listed our favorites for you. Right below you can check the best kenyan betting sites from 2026, carefully analysed by us. Pick yours and start betting now on Estoril x Tondela:
Analysis from Estoril x Tondela for the Portugal Primeira Liga – 7 of February
🏟️ Estoril X Tondela – Portugal Primeira Liga
📅 7 of February, 2026 – 18:00
🔵 Estoril – Winning probability: 50.29% | Fair line: 1.99
⚪ Tied game – Probability of tied match: 23.13% | Fair line: 4.32
🔴 Tondela – Winning probability: 26.58% | Fair line: 3.76
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.75 Estoril
⚽ Expected goals: 3.50 goals
⛳ Expected corner kicks: 10.50 corner kicks
Latest news on Estoril x Tondela
Estoril Praia: Estoril Praia is in seventh place in the Portugal Betclic League after 20 matches, with a record of 8 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses, totaling 29 points and a goal difference of +8. The teams top scorer is Yanis Begraoui, who scored 14 league goals. The team achieved a convincing 4-2 victory over Santa Clara on January 31, 2026, with goals from Alejandro Marqués (40′), Rafik Guitane (74′), and two penalties converted by Begraoui (33′, 88′), while Santa Claras goals were scored by Gabriel Silva (65′) and Diogo Calila (52′). The next league match is a home game against Tondela on February 7, 2026, at António Coimbra da Mota Stadium, followed by an away game against AVS – Futebol SAD on February 15, 2026. Estorils U-23 team also maintained momentum, beating Vizela U-23 2-1 on January 29, 2026, in the relegation phase of the U-23 championship, with goals from Bernardo Lourenço (31′), Renato Valente (35′), and Kelian Baruti (44′).
Table analysis for the match between Estoril and Tondela
Estoril: Estoril is in 7th place with 29 points, holding a comfortable position on the table, far from the relegation zone, but also not close enough to a spot for European competitions, which start from 4th place with 36 points. With round 21 (considering the league pattern), the team still has a relevant journey to perhaps try to secure spots in continental tournaments, but to do so, they would need a series of positive results and opponents setbacks. Therefore, the game is important for Estoril to maintain their good campaign and stay well positioned, still with theoretical chances to improve their ranking.
Tondela: Tondela is in 17th place with only 13 points and is in the relegation zone, very close to Z-18 with 5 points from AVS and almost without mathematical chances of saving themselves directly. This match is a crucial opportunity to try to gather points and avoid direct relegation or, at least, fight for the playoff, but the situation is quite complicated at this stage of the championship, requiring urgency in results to attempt a possible recovery.
Summary: The game is important for both teams, with Estoril seeking to improve their position on the table and keep pressure to reach a European spot, while Tondela fights to escape relegation. A duel with a lot of responsibility for each side! ⚽🔥
How the handicap and odds moved for Estoril x Tondela
One step many punters overlook is analysing the movement of odds and the handicap over time. Doing this gives a clearer idea of market expectations for the match between Estoril x Tondela.
Check the summary below that compares opening odds with current odds across the main markets: 1X2, handicap and goals.
📊 The odds for Estoril had a slight Decreased of -9.71%: the market opened with odds of @2.06 for Estoril and now the odds are @1.86.
📊 The odds for Draw had a slight Raised of 8.06%: the market opened with odds of @3.535 for Draw and now the odds are @3.82.
📊 The odds for Tondela had a great Raised of 13.27%: the market opened with odds of @3.805 for Tondela and now the odds are @4.31.
📊 The market increased home team´s favoritism: the handicap that opened at -0.25 is now at -0.75 for Estoril.
📊 The market expects more goals than when it opened: the goals handicap opened at 2.25 and now is at 2.75 goals.
Tips for the Match Odds market for Estoril x Tondela
A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Estoril and Tondela.
Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1475440 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:
Is it a good idea to bet on Estoril?
🔵 Estoril: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 50.29% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 1.91. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would hit 500 times – profiting $455.00;
- And would have lost other 500 times – with a loss of -$500.00 because of them.
So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$45.00.
Is betting on draw worth it?
⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 23.13% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.50. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would have hit 230 times – having a profit of $575.00;
- And would lose other 770 times – losing -$770.00 with them.
Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$195.00.
Should you bet on Tondela?
🔴 Tondela: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 26.58% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.80. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 270 times – this would give you a profit of $756.00
- And would lose other 730 times – having a loss of -$730.00 with them.
So this is a value bet. After all, at the end of these bets, you would have an expected profit of 💰$26.00.
Handicaps analysis for the match Estoril x Tondela
Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.
Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.75 Estoril
⚽ Expected goals: 3.50 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Estoril x Tondela
⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -0.75 Estoril and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.5 Estoril.
Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.5 Estoril.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Estoril x Tondela
⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 3.50 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.50 goals.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 1.00. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.50 goals.
FAQs: Common questions about the tip for Estoril x Tondela
Which team is the favourite in Estoril x Tondela?
From our analysis, the team that comes out as favourite is Estoril, with a win probability of 50.29%. Still, favourite does not guarantee a win!
Who will win: Estoril x Tondela?
It is important to remember that sports betting offers no guarantees. However, our analysis indicates that Estoril is more likely to win, with an estimated probability of 50.29%. Betting involves risk—bet responsibly!
What are the chances of Estoril beating Tondela today?
From our analysis, in 100 encounters we forecast that Estoril would take victory in roughly 50 of them versus Tondela.
What are the chances of Tondela beating Estoril today?
Based on our calculations, in every 100 matches we estimate Tondela would win about 27 of those versus Estoril.
Which team should I bet on: Estoril or Tondela?
A successful bettor looks for positive expected value opportunities. Based on our analysis, we believe the best bet for this match is: Tondela Wins, with a positive expected value of 14.63%. Bet responsibly and manage your bankroll: avoid staking more than 2% of your funds!
How much is Estoril paying today? See what you can win by betting on Estoril x Tondela:
The odds for Estoril to beat Tondela today are around 1.91. That means a bet of KSh1000 could return KSh1910.00 if Estoril wins. Remember betting involves risk and returns are not guaranteed. Bet responsibly!
How much is Tondela paying today? See what you can win by betting on Estoril x Tondela:
The average odds for Tondela to beat Estoril today are 3.80. So a KSh1000 stake could pay KSh3800.00 if Tondela wins. Bet responsibly and remember outcomes are not certain.
