Estrela x Tondela Betting tips for February 20 in Portugal Primeira Liga

Our betting tip for Estrela x Tondela, Friday, 20/2/2026

📅 20/2/2026 20:45

Estrela 2.60

X 3.10

Tondela 2.70

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Estrela x Tondela:

🔮 Tondela wins the match
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The main points for the tip for Estrela x Tondela:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Estrela in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $105.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Tondela in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $50.0.
👉 In the last 4 matches as the away team, Tondela conceded at least 1 goal(s).

🤖 Critical insight from ChatGPT on the prediction for Estrela vs Tondela:

Lets analyze the match between Estrela and Tondela at Estádio José Gomes, which is Estrelas usual stadium, ensuring them the home advantage. ⚽

📈 Estrela is fighting to stay out of the relegation zone, with 23 points in 22 games and a negative goal difference (-13). Tondela is in an even more delicate situation, in 17th place with only 15 points and a -21 goal difference. This shows that both teams desperately need a win to escape relegation, but Estrela has a slight edge for being a bit more comfortable in the standings.

Looking at recent stats: Estrela scores an average of 1 goal per game at home in recent matches and concedes about 2 goals per game. They have a higher shot average (14) compared to Tondela (8), and also more ball possession (48% vs. 41%). On the defensive side, both concede quite a few goals (around 2 on average). Tondela hasnt won any of their last five league away games and shows clear offensive struggles.

📰 News supports this analysis: Midfielder Brayan Medina from Tondela has been standing out individually, but this hasnt been enough to improve team results. Estrela is trying to stay above the critical zone with inconsistent performance, but still better than their direct opponent.

Based on median odds, the approximate normalized implied probabilities are: Estrela win ~38%, draw ~32%, Tondela win ~30%. Considering the superior offensive stats of the home team and the pressure from the visitors, my fair estimate would be: Estrela win ~40%, draw ~30%, Tondela win ~30%.

The fair odds suggest value mainly in betting on the home team or the draw; the final odds show a slight overvaluation of the visitors win according to Bets Kenya model (which indicates positive value only for this option). I disagree because the data shows the visiting team is very weak offensively away and concedes many goals, while the home team, despite suffering, creates more real chances.

Therefore, my suggestion is to bet on the CF Estrela Amadora victory, as I see value there considering the teams needs combined with recent statistics. The expected value calculated for this bet is above the +5% threshold recommended for a good opportunity.

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Analysis from Estrela x Tondela for the Portugal Primeira Liga – 20 of February

Latest news on Estrela x Tondela

CF Estrela Amadora: CF Estrela Amadora is currently near the bottom of the Primeira Liga 2025-26 table, having completed 22 league matches with a record of five wins, eight draws, and nine losses, a goal difference of -13, and a total of 23 points; this places them just above the relegation zone, tied with Arouca with 23 points and below Alverca, which has 25, indicating a season where they are fighting to stay out of relegation.

Tondela: Tondela is facing a tough season in 2026 in Portugals top division, currently in 17th place and five points below safety. After a tough 1-1 home draw against Alverca, who are mid-table, Colombian midfielder Brayan Medina received a 9.0 rating for providing the late equalizer – a headed assist to João Silva – as well as making five tackles, the most on the team, and achieving a pass accuracy rate of 93.9%. The teams league record so far is three wins, six draws, and thirteen losses in 22 matches, leaving them with 15 points and a goal difference of -21, highlighting the urgency to improve results to avoid relegation.

Table analysis for the game between Estrela and Tondela

Star: Star is in 11th place with 23 points, in an intermediate zone of the table, but still close to the teams fighting to avoid relegation. This match is important for them because a victory helps to increase the distance from the dangerous relegation zone, ensuring more peace of mind for the rest of the season.

Tondela: Tondela is in 17th place with only 15 points, in the direct relegation zone. For them, this match is decisive, as they desperately need points to move away from this dangerous position and keep their chances of staying in the Primeira Liga.

Summary: This game is of great importance for both teams, who are directly involved in the tough fight to avoid relegation. A win in this match could be crucial for both teams future this season.

How the handicap and odds moved for Estrela x Tondela

We will also look at how the odds and handicap have evolved over time. This approach helps capture the market sentiment for the fixture between Estrela x Tondela.

Below you will find a summary comparing opening odds with current odds in the principal markets: 1X2, handicap and goals.

Tips for the Match Odds market for Estrela x Tondela

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Estrela x Tondela right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1483619 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Is it worth betting on Estrela?

🔵 Estrela: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 31.72% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.60. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 320 times – this would give you a profit of $512.00
• And would lose other 680 times – losing -$680.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$168.00.

Is it worth betting on draw?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 27.3% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.10. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 270 times – having a profit of $567.00;
• And would have lost other 730 times – with a loss of -$730.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$163.00.

Should you bet on Tondela?

🔴 Tondela: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 40.98% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.70. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 410 times – this would give you a profit of $697.00
• And would lose other 590 times – losing -$590.00 with them.

It is a value bet, since after all you would have an expected final profit of 💰$107.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Estrela x Tondela

Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.25 Estrela
⚽ Expected goals: 2.25 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Estrela x Tondela

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is +0.25 Estrela and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 0.0 Estrela.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.0 Tondela.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Estrela x Tondela

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.25 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.25 goals. As the handicap available on the market is the same as that indicated by our robot, we will do nothing since there is not value bets on the Goals Handicap market.

FAQs: Frequently asked questions about the prediction for Estrela x Tondela