📊 Check out the analysis on Betfellows for this match: Full prognostic for Portimonense x Guimaraes
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Analysis from Portimonense x Guimaraes for the Portugal Primeira Liga – 17 of January
🏟️ Portimonense X Guimaraes – Portugal Primeira Liga
Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Portimonense x Guimaraes right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.
To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 288856 matches from Betfellows database, our collaborative prediction platform, seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:
Tips for the 1×2 market for Portimonense x Guimaraes
Is it a good idea to bet on Portimonense?
🔵 Portimonense: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 34.56% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.50. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 350 times – profiting $525.00;
- And would lose other 650 times – losing -$650.00 with them.
We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$125.00.
Is it worth betting on draw?
⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 27.43%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.11. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 270 times – this would give you a profit of $569.70
- And would have lost other 730 times – with a loss of -$730.00 because of them.
So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$160.30.
Is betting on Guimaraes worth it?
🔴 Guimaraes: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 38.02% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.83. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would have hit 380 times – having a profit of $695.40;
- And would have lost other 620 times – with a loss of -$620.00 because of them.
That is why this is a value bet. In the end, you would have had a final profit of 💰$75.40.
Handicaps analysis for the match Portimonense x Guimaraes
Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.
These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.25 Portimonense
⚽ Expected goals: 2.25 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Portimonense x Guimaraes
⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -0.25 Portimonense and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 0.0 Portimonense.
Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.0 Portimonense.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Portimonense x Guimaraes
⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.25 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.25 goals.
The handicap that our algorithm found is the same as the bookies, which means that there is not any value to bet on the Goals Handicap market.
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Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.> Check other content created by Humberto Alves