Tondela x Guimaraes Betting tips for November 8 in Portugal Primeira Liga

Our betting tip for Tondela x Guimaraes, Saturday, 8/11/2025

📅 8/11/2025 18:00

Tondela 2.87

X 3.20

Guimaraes 2.40

This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for Tondela x Guimaraes:

🔮 Tied Match
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The main points for the tip for Tondela x Guimaraes:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Tondela in each of its last 4 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-400.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Guimaraes in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-141.0.
👉 In the last 5 Guimaraes matches as the away team, it finished under 2.5 goals.
👉 Playing as the home team, Tondela conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 3 head-to-head against Guimaraes.

🤖 What does ChatGPT say about our prediction for Tondela vs Guimaraes?

Lets analyze the match between Tondela and Guimarães, which will take place at João Cardoso Stadium, a modest stadium with a capacity of about 3 to 5 thousand people, which may have little influence in terms of crowd pressure.

📈 Table analysis: Tondela is in Liga Portugal 2, fighting relegation (17th place), while Guimarães is in the Primeira Liga in a comfortable position (6th place). This shows a clear difference in the level and motivation of the teams: Guimarães aims to establish itself in the top half of the table and has better technical and moral quality. Tondela, on the other hand, faces serious difficulties to stay competitive.

Statistically, Tondela shows weak numbers at home: scored only 3 goals in the last 5 home games and conceded 8; they havent won any of these matches. Additionally, their possession average is lower (47%) compared to the opponent (50%), they suffer more accurate shots per game (7 vs 5), and have fewer corners in their favor. Guimarães away from home scores about one goal per game and concedes one goal per game — balanced numbers but superior to Tondelas performance.

The median odds analysis indicates Guimarães as favorites with average odds close to 2.39 for an away win against approximately 2.9 for a home win. After normalizing the implied probabilities of the odds, we get something close to:

• Tondela win: ~33%
• Draw: ~31%
• Guimarães win: ~36%

However, considering Tondelas unfavorable statistics playing “at home” in this neutral Brazilian stadium — since João Cardoso Stadium is not their usual field — combined with Guimarãess superior quality in the Primeira Liga, my adjusted estimate would be:

• Tondela win: ~25%
• Draw: ~25%
• Guimarães win: ~50%

Thus, fair odds would be higher for the visitors (~2.0), reflecting a greater chance of them winning; while odds for a draw or home win would be higher (~4.0), indicating a lower probability of these outcomes.

Evaluating the expected value using the final market odds versus my adjusted probabilities suggests a positive value only in the bet on Guimarãess victory with an EV close to +7%, confirming this as an interesting bet.

📰 Recent news:
Guimarães comes energized after important wins like against Braga and a goalless draw with Sporting CP; additionally, they have recovered reinforcements like André Silva who can make an offensive difference.
Tondela, on the other hand, fights in a lower division trying to avoid relegation without recent highlights or consistent offensive strength.

Final analysis:
I fully agree with the Bets Kenya club model that the best option is to bet on Guimarãess victory! Although it slightly underestimates this chance by setting a lower odds than my fair estimate, it is correct in indicating positive value in this bet (+7% EV according to them). I would reinforce this favoritism given the poor statistical data of the local team playing outside their usual arena.

Therefore, my tip is:
Recommended bet → Guimarães victory 🟢 Estimated EV +7% 📈

#Football #Bets #PrimeiraLiga #TondelaVsGuimaraes ⚽🔥

Looking for another bookie to bet on Tondela x Guimaraes?

If you want to take a look at more options of betting websites, we, from the Clube, have listed our favorites for you. Right below you can check the best kenyan betting sites from 2025, carefully analysed by us. Pick yours and start betting now on Tondela x Guimaraes:

Analysis from Tondela x Guimaraes for the Portugal Primeira Liga – 8 of November

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Tondela and Guimaraes.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1434443 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Latest news on Tondela x Guimaraes

Tondela: Tondela is currently competing in Liga Portugal 2, where they hold 17th place in the 2025-26 season and are fighting to avoid relegation; their most recent league match was a direct duel against AVS Futebol SAD, with both clubs occupying the bottom positions of the table, while their U-19 team is in 10th place in their group after a recent match against OS Belenenses U19.

Vitória de Guimarães: Vitória de Guimarães is mid-table in the Primeira Liga 2025-26, currently in 6th place with 12 points after six matches, having secured a 2-1 victory over Braga on October 28 and a goalless draw with Sporting CP the following weekend; under coach Álvaro Magalhães, appointed in July 2025, the team adopted a more offensive approach and has given minutes to several youth players, with forward André Silva, recovered from a thigh injury, scoring the winning goal against Braga. The team will face Sintrense, from the third division, in the fourth round of the Taça de Portugal on November 22, while the club’s U-15 team is competing in the Algarve Elite Cup, having played against Birmingham City U15 on October 31, Atlético de Madrid U15 on November 1, and scheduled to play Leyton Orient U15 on November 2 as part of their preparation to promote young talents to the main squad.

Portugal Primeira Liga table analysis for Tondela x Guimaraes

Tondela: The team is in the second-to-last position in the table, with only 6 points, and is in the direct relegation zone. This match is crucial for Tondela, which desperately needs to win to try to escape relegation. Every point is vital at this moment to keep some hope of getting out of this difficult situation.

Guimarães: The team is in 11th place, with 11 points, in a relatively safe position, far from the relegation zone, and without clear chances of qualifying for European spots. Therefore, the importance of the match for Guimarães is less, mainly to accumulate points and improve their campaign in the medium term, but without extreme pressure at the moment.

Summary: The game is very important for Tondela, which fights to avoid relegation, while for Guimarães, the match has less direct impact on the table. Therefore, it is a crucial confrontation for one team and relatively calm for the other.

Tips for the Match Odds market for Tondela x Guimaraes

Is it a good idea to bet on Tondela?

🔵 Tondela: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 36.94% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.87. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 370 times – this would give you a profit of $691.90
• And would have lost other 630 times – with a loss of -$630.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$61.90.

Is betting on draw worth it?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 35.67% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.20. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 360 times – profiting $792.00;
• And would lose other 640 times – having a loss of -$640.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$152.00.

Should you bet on Guimaraes?

🔴 Guimaraes: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 27.39% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.40. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 270 times – having a profit of $378.00;
• And would lose other 730 times – losing -$730.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$352.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Tondela x Guimaraes

Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.25 Tondela
⚽ Expected goals: 2.25 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Tondela x Guimaraes

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be +0.25 Tondela, and the current handicap offered by bookies is +0.25 Tondela.

Since there is not big differences between the handicap offered by bookies and the one suggested by our algorithm, we can consider that there is no value to bet on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Tondela x Guimaraes

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.25 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.25 goals.

Since the handicap offered by bookmakers is the same as the one we got with our model, there is not any value bets on the Goals Handicap market.