Puebla x Toluca Betting tips for March 15 in Mexico Liga MX
| 📅 15/3/2025 03:05 |
 Puebla4.56 |
X 4.00 |
Toluca  1.62 |
This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Puebla x Toluca:
🔮 Toluca wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Toluca, you can win up to $810.00!
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The main points for the tip for Puebla x Toluca: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Puebla in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-265.0. |
Do you want other options of bookmakers to bet on Puebla x Toluca?
If you want other options of bookmakers to bet on Puebla x Toluca, no problem. Right below you have the sports betting sites that we used the most in 2025. You will be in good hands on any of them, just pick your favorite and start betting:
Analysis from Puebla x Toluca for the Mexico Liga MX – 15 of March
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🏟️ Puebla X Toluca – Mexico Liga MX |
Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Puebla x Toluca right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.
And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1281124 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:
Tips for the Match Odds market for Puebla x Toluca
Is it a good idea to bet on Puebla?
🔵 Puebla: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 11.87% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 4.56. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 120 times – this would give you a profit of $427.20
- And would lose other 880 times – losing -$880.00 with them.
So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$452.80.
Is it worth betting on draw?
⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 17.96% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 4.00. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would hit 180 times – this would give you a profit of $540.00
- And would lose other 820 times – losing -$820.00 with them.
We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$280.00.
Is it worth betting on Toluca?
🔴 Toluca: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 70.17% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.62. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 700 times – this would give you a profit of $434.00
- And would lose other 300 times – having a loss of -$300.00 with them.
It is a value bet, since after all you would have an expected final profit of 💰$134.00.
Handicaps analysis for the match Puebla x Toluca
Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.
This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: +1.25 Puebla
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Puebla x Toluca
⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is +1.25 Puebla and the available handicap to bet at the moment is +0.75 Puebla.
Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.50, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.75 Toluca.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Puebla x Toluca
⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 3.00 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 3.00 goals.
The handicap that our algorithm found is the same as the bookies, which means that there is not any value to bet on the Goals Handicap market.
