Santos Laguna x Leon Betting tips for March 9 in Mexico Liga MX

Our betting tip for Santos Laguna x Leon, Sunday, 9/3/2025

📅 9/3/2025 23:00

Santos Laguna 3.73

X 3.70

Leon 1.85

This is the bet from our artificial intelligence for Santos Laguna x Leon:

🔮 Leon wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Leon, you can win up to $925.00!

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Important information for your tip for Santos Laguna x Leon: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Santos Laguna in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-180.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Leon in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $753.0. 👉 In the last 7 matches as the away team, Leon scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 3 Santos Laguna matches as the home team, it finished under 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 7 matches as the away team, Leon conceded at least 1 goal(s). 👉 Playing as the home team, Santos Laguna conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 5 head-to-head against Leon. 👉 In the last 5 road matches, Leon has not lost any of them.

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Analysis from Santos Laguna x Leon for the Mexico Liga MX – 9 of March

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Santos Laguna x Leon right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1277528 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Tips for the Match Odds market for Santos Laguna x Leon

Is it worth betting on Santos Laguna?

🔵 Santos Laguna: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 16.76% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.73. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 170 times – this would give you a profit of $464.10
• And would lose other 830 times – losing -$830.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$365.90.

Should you bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 14.48% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.70. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 140 times – this would give you a profit of $378.00
• And would lose other 860 times – losing -$860.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$482.00.

Should you bet on Leon?

🔴 Leon: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 68.75% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.85. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 690 times – profiting $586.50;
• And would lose other 310 times – losing -$310.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$276.50.

Handicaps analysis for the match Santos Laguna x Leon

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.75 Santos Laguna
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Santos Laguna x Leon

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is +0.75 Santos Laguna and the available handicap to bet at the moment is +0.5 Santos Laguna.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.5 Leon.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Santos Laguna x Leon

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.75 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.75 goals.

Since there is not big differences between the handicap offered by bookies and the one suggested by our algorithm, we can consider that there is no value to bet on the Goals Handicap market.