Paraguay x Colombia Betting tips for November 21 in South America – World Cup Qualifying

Our betting tip for Paraguay x Colombia, Tuesday, 21/11/2023

📅 21/11/2023 23:00

Paraguay 3.20

X 3.05

Colombia 2.30

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Paraguay x Colombia:

🔮 Tied Match
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Important information for your tip for Paraguay x Colombia: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Paraguay in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-93.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Colombia in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $325.0. 👉 Paraguay did not concede a goal in the last 5 matches as home team. 👉 Colombia did not concede a goal in the last 3 matches as away team. 👉 In the last 5 Paraguay matches as the home team, it finished under 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 3 Colombia matches as the away team, it finished under 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 9 road matches, Colombia has not lost any of them.

📊 Check out the analysis on Betfellows for this match: Full prognostic for Paraguay x Colombia

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Analysis from Paraguay x Colombia for the South America – World Cup Qualifying – 21 of November

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Paraguay and Colombia.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1024310 matches on the database from our soccer prognostics platform, Betfellows, looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the Match Odds market for Paraguay x Colombia

Is betting on Paraguay worth it?

🔵 Paraguay: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 17.41% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.20. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 170 times – having a profit of $374.00;
• And would have lost other 830 times – with a loss of -$830.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$456.00.

Is betting on draw worth it?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 38.47% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.05. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 380 times – this would give you a profit of $779.00
• And would lose other 620 times – losing -$620.00 with them.

It is a value bet, since after all you would have an expected final profit of 💰$159.00.

Is it worth betting on Colombia?

🔴 Colombia: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 44.12% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.30. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 440 times – having a profit of $572.00;
• And would lose other 560 times – having a loss of -$560.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$12.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Paraguay x Colombia

Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.25 Paraguay
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Paraguay x Colombia

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is +0.25 Paraguay and the available handicap to bet at the moment is +0.25 Paraguay.

The handicap that our algorithm found is the same as the bookies, which means that there is not any value to bet on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Paraguay x Colombia

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.50 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.25 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.