Arsenal x Aston Villa Betting tips for April 14 in England Premier League

Our betting tip for Arsenal x Aston Villa, Sunday, 14/4/2024

📅 14/4/2024 15:30

Arsenal 1.28

X 5.96

Aston Villa 9.50

This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for Arsenal x Aston Villa:

🔮 Arsenal wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Arsenal, you can win up to $640.00!

Make this bet on Bet365 now!

Or access: https://www.bet365.com 

Important information for your tip for Arsenal x Aston Villa: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Arsenal in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-11.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Aston Villa in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-89.0. 👉 In the last 7 matches as the home team, Arsenal scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 5 head-to-head matches between Arsenal x Aston Villa, with Arsenal as the home team, they finished over 2.5 goals. 👉 Playing as the home team, Arsenal conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 4 head-to-head against Aston Villa.

Do you want more options of bookies to bet on Arsenal x Aston Villa?

If you already have an account on Bet365 or want other options of bookmakers, do not worry! This list below was carefully created taking you into consideration. These are the best betting sites analysed by us in 2024. You just have to click, deposit and bet:

Analysis from Arsenal x Aston Villa for the England Premier League – 14 of April

When the best bet on Arsenal x Aston Villa is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1095860 matches from Betfellows database, our collaborative prediction platform, seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Tips for the Match Odds market for Arsenal x Aston Villa

Is it a good idea to bet on Arsenal?

🔵 Arsenal: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 91.99% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.28. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 920 times – profiting $257.60;
• And would have lost other 80 times – with a loss of -$80.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$177.60.

Is it worth betting on draw?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 6.25% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 5.96. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 60 times – this would give you a profit of $297.60
• And would have lost other 940 times – with a loss of -$940.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$642.40.

Is it a good idea to bet on Aston Villa?

🔴 Aston Villa: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 1.76% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 9.50. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 20 times – profiting $170.00;
• And would lose other 980 times – losing -$980.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$810.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Arsenal x Aston Villa

Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -2.0 Arsenal
⚽ Expected goals: 3.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Arsenal x Aston Villa

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -2.0 Arsenal, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -1.5 Arsenal.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -1.5 Arsenal.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Arsenal x Aston Villa

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 3.50 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 3.25 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 3.25 goals.