Aston Villa x Bournemouth Betting tips for April 21 in England Premier League
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21/4/2024 14:00 |
 Aston Villa1.76 |
X 4.00 |
Bournemouth  4.00 |
Our algorithm has selected this tip for Aston Villa x Bournemouth:
๐ฎ Aston Villa wins the match
๐ฐ When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Aston Villa, you can win up to $880.00!
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Important information for your tip for Aston Villa x Bournemouth: ๐ If you had bet $100 on Aston Villa in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-44.0. |
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Analysis from Aston Villa x Bournemouth for the England Premier League – 21 of April
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๐๏ธ Aston Villa X Bournemouth – England Premier League |
When the best bet on Aston Villa x Bournemouth is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.
And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1100583 matches on the database from our soccer prognostics platform, Betfellows, looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:
Tips for the 1×2 market for Aston Villa x Bournemouth
Is it a good idea to bet on Aston Villa?
๐ต Aston Villa: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 62.67% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 1.76. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 630 times – profiting $478.80;
- And would lose other 370 times – losing -$370.00 with them.
Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of ๐ฐ$108.80.
Should you bet on draw?
โช draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 19.77% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 4.00. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would have hit 200 times – having a profit of $600.00;
- And would lose other 800 times – losing -$800.00 with them.
That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of ๐ฐ-$200.00.
Is betting on Bournemouth worth it?
๐ด Bournemouth: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 17.56% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 4.00. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would hit 180 times – this would give you a profit of $540.00
- And would lose other 820 times – losing -$820.00 with them.
We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of ๐ฐ-$280.00.
Handicaps analysis for the match Aston Villa x Bournemouth
Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on soccer betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..
Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:
โ Handicap 1×2: -0.5 Aston Villa
โฝ Expected goals: 3.00 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Aston Villa x Bournemouth
โ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.5 Aston Villa, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.75 Aston Villa.
Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.75 Bournemouth.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Aston Villa x Bournemouth
โฝ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 3.00 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 3.25 goals.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: – 3.25 goals.
