📊 You can also check out the full analysis on Betfellows: Prognostic for Aston Villa x Chelsea
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Analysis from Aston Villa x Chelsea for the England Premier League – 26 of December
🏟️ Aston Villa X Chelsea – England Premier League
When the best bet on Aston Villa x Chelsea is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.
Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial inteligelnce has colected information from around 281997 matches on the betting prognostics platform Betfellows , in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:
Tips for the Match Odds market for Aston Villa x Chelsea
Is it a good idea to bet on Aston Villa?
🔵 Aston Villa: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 6.19% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 5.99. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would have hit 60 times – having a profit of $299.40;
- And would lose other 940 times – losing -$940.00 with them.
Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$640.60.
Should you bet on draw?
⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 16.5%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.90. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 170 times – this would give you a profit of $493.00
- And would lose other 830 times – having a loss of -$830.00 with them.
We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$337.00.
Is betting on Chelsea worth it?
🔴 Chelsea: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 77.3% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.56. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 770 times – profiting $431.20;
- And would lose other 230 times – losing -$230.00 with them.
That is why this is a value bet. In the end, you would have had a final profit of 💰$201.20.
Handicaps analysis for the match Aston Villa x Chelsea
Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.
Going ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.75 Aston Villa
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals
Tips for the market Handicap 1×2 for Aston Villa x Chelsea
⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be +0.75 Aston Villa, and the current handicap offered by bookies is +1.0 Aston Villa.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: +1.0 Aston Villa.
Tips for the market Goals Handicap for Aston Villa x Chelsea
⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.75 goals and the available handicap to bet at that moment is 2.50 goals.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.50 goals.
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Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.> Check other content created by Humberto Alves