📊 You can also check out the full analysis on Betfellows: Prognostic for Leeds x Newcastle
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Analysis from Leeds x Newcastle for the England Premier League – 22 of January
🏟️ Leeds X Newcastle – England Premier League
A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Leeds and Newcastle.
To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 290605 matches from Betfellows database, our collaborative prediction platform, seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:
Tips for the 1×2 market for Leeds x Newcastle
Should you bet on Leeds?
🔵 Leeds: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 59.87% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.00. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would have hit 600 times – having a profit of $600.00;
- And would have lost other 400 times – with a loss of -$400.00 because of them.
Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$200.00.
Is betting on draw worth it?
⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 27.02% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.62. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 270 times – this would give you a profit of $707.40
- And would lose other 730 times – having a loss of -$730.00 with them.
That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$22.60.
Is betting on Newcastle worth it?
🔴 Newcastle: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 13.12%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.60. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 130 times – this would give you a profit of $338.00
- And would lose other 870 times – losing -$870.00 with them.
We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$532.00.
Handicaps analysis for the match Leeds x Newcastle
Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on soccer betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..
These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.75 Leeds
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Leeds x Newcastle
⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.75 Leeds, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.5 Leeds.
Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.5 Leeds.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Leeds x Newcastle
⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 3.00 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.75 goals.
Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.75 goals.
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Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.> Check other content created by Humberto Alves