📊 You can also check out the full analysis on Betfellows: Prognostic for Academica x Rio Ave
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Analysis from Academica x Rio Ave for the Portugal Segunda Liga – 17 of January
🏟️ Academica X Rio Ave – Portugal Segunda Liga
A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Academica and Rio Ave.
And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 288856 matches on the database from our soccer prognostics platform, Betfellows, looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:
Tips for the 1×2 market for Academica x Rio Ave
Should you bet on Academica?
🔵 Academica: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 6.53% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.98. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would hit 70 times – profiting $138.25;
- And would lose other 930 times – having a loss of -$930.00 with them.
That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$791.75.
Is it a good idea to bet on draw?
⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 52.97% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.17. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 530 times – this would give you a profit of $1147.45
- And would have lost other 470 times – with a loss of -$470.00 because of them.
Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$677.45.
Should you bet on Rio Ave?
🔴 Rio Ave: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 40.5%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.29. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 400 times – profiting $518.00;
- And would have lost other 600 times – with a loss of -$600.00 because of them.
Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$82.00.
Handicaps analysis for the match Academica x Rio Ave
Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.
These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.75 Academica
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Academica x Rio Ave
⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is +0.75 Academica and the available handicap to bet at the moment is +0.25 Academica.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.25 Rio Ave.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Academica x Rio Ave
⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.50 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.25 goals.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.
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Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.> Check other content created by Humberto Alves