📊 Check out the analysis on Betfellows for this match: Full prognostic for AFC Fylde x Guiseley
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Analysis from AFC Fylde x Guiseley for the England National League North – 22 of January
🏟️ AFC Fylde X Guiseley – England National League North
Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for AFC Fylde x Guiseley right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.
And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 290605 matches on the database from our soccer prognostics platform, Betfellows, looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:
Tips for the Match Odds market for AFC Fylde x Guiseley
Is it a good idea to bet on AFC Fylde?
🔵 AFC Fylde: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 77.19%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 1.47. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 770 times – profiting $361.90;
- And would lose other 230 times – losing -$230.00 with them.
So this is a value bet. After all, at the end of these bets, you would have an expected profit of 💰$131.90.
Should you bet on draw?
⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 13.3% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 4.00. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would have hit 130 times – having a profit of $390.00;
- And would have lost other 870 times – with a loss of -$870.00 because of them.
Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$480.00.
Is it worth betting on Guiseley?
🔴 Guiseley: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 9.51% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 5.96. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would hit 100 times – profiting $496.00;
- And would have lost other 900 times – with a loss of -$900.00 because of them.
Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$404.00.
Handicaps analysis for the match AFC Fylde x Guiseley
Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.
Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.75 AFC Fylde
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for AFC Fylde x Guiseley
⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.75 AFC Fylde, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -1.0 AFC Fylde.
Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 1.0 Guiseley.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for AFC Fylde x Guiseley
⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.50 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.50 goals. As the handicap available on the market is the same as that indicated by our robot, we will do nothing since there is not value bets on the Goals Handicap market.
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Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.> Check other content created by Humberto Alves