📊 Check out the full analysis on Betfellows: Prognostic for Aglianese x Carpi
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Analysis from Aglianese x Carpi for the Italy Serie D – 19 of January
🏟️ Aglianese X Carpi – Italy Serie D
Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Aglianese x Carpi right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.
And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 289741 matches on the database from our soccer prognostics platform, Betfellows, looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:
Tips for the Match Odds market for Aglianese x Carpi
Is it worth betting on Aglianese?
🔵 Aglianese: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 64.87% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 1.91. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 650 times – this would give you a profit of $591.50
- And would have lost other 350 times – with a loss of -$350.00 because of them.
Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$241.50.
Is it worth betting on draw?
⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 9.53% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.50. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would hit 100 times – this would give you a profit of $250.00
- And would have lost other 900 times – with a loss of -$900.00 because of them.
Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$650.00.
Should you bet on Carpi?
🔴 Carpi: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 25.61% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.40. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 260 times – profiting $624.00;
- And would lose other 740 times – having a loss of -$740.00 with them.
Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$116.00.
Handicaps analysis for the match Aglianese x Carpi
The handicap market is also very searched for by bettors in professional bookmakers and our model can help you with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.
Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.75 Aglianese
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Aglianese x Carpi
⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -0.75 Aglianese and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.5 Aglianese.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.5 Aglianese.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Aglianese x Carpi
⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 3.00 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.50 goals.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.50 goals.
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Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.> Check other content created by Humberto Alves