📊 Check out the analysis from this match on Betfellows: Complete prognostic for Carlisle x Crawley Town
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Analysis from Carlisle x Crawley Town for the England League 2 – 15 of January
🏟️ Carlisle X Crawley Town – England League 2
Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Carlisle x Crawley Town right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.
To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 287992 matches from Betfellows database, our collaborative prediction platform, seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:
Tips for the 1×2 market for Carlisle x Crawley Town
Is it worth betting on Carlisle?
🔵 Carlisle: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 50.37%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.05. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would have hit 500 times – having a profit of $525.00;
- And would have lost other 500 times – with a loss of -$500.00 because of them.
Even if it is a positive expected value bet, the expected profit is just 💰$25.00 which is not worth the risk in our opinion.
Is betting on draw worth it?
⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 24.98% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.30. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would have hit 250 times – having a profit of $575.00;
- And would lose other 750 times – losing -$750.00 with them.
We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$175.00.
Is it worth betting on Crawley Town?
🔴 Crawley Town: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 24.66%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.60. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would hit 250 times – profiting $650.00;
- And would lose other 750 times – having a loss of -$750.00 with them.
Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$100.00.
Handicaps analysis for the match Carlisle x Crawley Town
Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.
Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.25 Carlisle
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Carlisle x Crawley Town
⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.25 Carlisle, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.5 Carlisle.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.5 Crawley Town.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Carlisle x Crawley Town
⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.50 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.50 goals.
Since there is not big differences between the handicap offered by bookies and the one suggested by our algorithm, we can consider that there is no value to bet on the Goals Handicap market.
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Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.> Check other content created by Humberto Alves