📊 Check out the analysis from this match on Betfellows: Complete prognostic for Castro x UD Samano
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Analysis from Castro x UD Samano for the Spain Tercera Group 3 – 15 of January
🏟️ Castro X UD Samano – Spain Tercera Group 3
When the best bet on Castro x UD Samano is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.
And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 287992 matches on the database from our soccer prognostics platform, Betfellows, looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:
Tips for the Match Odds market for Castro x UD Samano
Should you bet on Castro?
🔵 Castro: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 38.0% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.40. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 380 times – this would give you a profit of $532.00
- And would lose other 620 times – having a loss of -$620.00 with them.
So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$88.00.
Is betting on draw worth it?
⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 32.83% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.90. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would have hit 330 times – having a profit of $627.00;
- And would lose other 670 times – having a loss of -$670.00 with them.
Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$43.00.
Should you bet on UD Samano?
🔴 UD Samano: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 29.17%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.85. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 290 times – profiting $536.50;
- And would lose other 710 times – losing -$710.00 with them.
So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$173.50.
Handicaps analysis for the match Castro x UD Samano
Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.
Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: 0.0 Castro
⚽ Expected goals: 2.25 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Castro x UD Samano
⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 0.0 Castro and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 0.0 Castro.
Since there is not big differences between the handicap offered by bookies and the one suggested by our algorithm, we can consider that there is no value to bet on the Handicap 1×2 market.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Castro x UD Samano
⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.25 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.25 goals.
Since there is not big differences between the handicap offered by bookies and the one suggested by our algorithm, we can consider that there is no value to bet on the Goals Handicap market.
You can check out our tips on YouTube
Our tipsters are also on our betting tips channel on YouTube analysing the main bets for Saturday. Right above you can check our latest predictions and do not forget to subscribe to our channel!
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Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.> Check other content created by Humberto Alves