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18/1/2022 18:00 |
 CD Mafra1.88 |
X 3.25 |
Estrela  4.00 |
This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for CD Mafra x Estrela:
๐ฎ Tied Match
๐ฐ When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on a tie, you can win up to $1625.00!
๐ Check out the analysis from this match on Betfellows: Complete prognostic for CD Mafra x Estrela
Do you want other suggestions of bookmakers to bet on CD Mafra x Estrela?
If you want to take a look at more options of betting websites, we, from the Clube, have listed our favorites for you. Right below you can check the best bookies from 2022, carefully analysed by us. Pick yours and start betting now on CD Mafra x Estrela:
Analysis from CD Mafra x Estrela for the Portugal Segunda Liga – 18 of January
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๐๏ธ CD Mafra X Estrela – Portugal Segunda Liga |
When the best bet on CD Mafra x Estrela is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.
And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 289715 matches on the database from our soccer prognostics platform, Betfellows, looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:
Tips for the 1×2 market for CD Mafra x Estrela
Is betting on CD Mafra worth it?
๐ต CD Mafra: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 47.82% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.88. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 480 times – profiting $422.40;
- And would have lost other 520 times – with a loss of -$520.00 because of them.
So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of ๐ฐ-$97.60.
Is it a good idea to bet on draw?
โช draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 32.48% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.25. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 320 times – this would give you a profit of $720.00
- And would have lost other 680 times – with a loss of -$680.00 because of them.
Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of ๐ฐ$40.00.
Is betting on Estrela worth it?
๐ด Estrela: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 19.7%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 4.00. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would hit 200 times – this would give you a profit of $600.00
- And would lose other 800 times – having a loss of -$800.00 with them.
Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of ๐ฐ-$200.00.
Handicaps analysis for the match CD Mafra x Estrela
Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.
Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:
โ Handicap 1×2: -0.25 CD Mafra
โฝ Expected goals: 2.50 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for CD Mafra x Estrela
โ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.25 CD Mafra, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.5 CD Mafra.
Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.5 Estrela.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for CD Mafra x Estrela
โฝ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.50 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.25 goals.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.
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Written by
Humberto Alves
Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.
> Check other content created by Humberto Alves
