📊 You can also check out the full analysis on Betfellows: Prognostic for Cowdenbeath x Stranraer
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Analysis from Cowdenbeath x Stranraer for the Scotland League Two – 22 of January
🏟️ Cowdenbeath X Stranraer – Scotland League Two
Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Cowdenbeath x Stranraer right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.
And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 290605 matches on the database from our soccer prognostics platform, Betfellows, looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:
Tips for the 1×2 market for Cowdenbeath x Stranraer
Is it a good idea to bet on Cowdenbeath?
🔵 Cowdenbeath: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 30.01% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.27. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would have hit 300 times – having a profit of $382.50;
- And would lose other 700 times – losing -$700.00 with them.
So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$317.50.
Is betting on draw worth it?
⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 21.77% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.20. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 220 times – this would give you a profit of $484.00
- And would lose other 780 times – losing -$780.00 with them.
Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$296.00.
Is betting on Stranraer worth it?
🔴 Stranraer: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 48.22%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.80. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would have hit 480 times – having a profit of $864.00;
- And would have lost other 520 times – with a loss of -$520.00 because of them.
Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$344.00.
Handicaps analysis for the match Cowdenbeath x Stranraer
Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on soccer betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..
Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: 0.0 Cowdenbeath
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Cowdenbeath x Stranraer
⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 0.0 Cowdenbeath, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.25 Cowdenbeath.
Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.25 Stranraer.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Cowdenbeath x Stranraer
⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 3.00 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.50 goals.
Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.50, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.50 goals.
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Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.> Check other content created by Humberto Alves