📊 Check out the analysis from this match on Betfellows: Complete prognostic for Gabon x Morocco
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Analysis from Gabon x Morocco for the Africa Cup of Nations – 18 of January
🏟️ Gabon X Morocco – Africa Cup of Nations
When the best bet on Gabon x Morocco is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.
And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 289715 matches on the database from our soccer prognostics platform, Betfellows, looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:
Tips for the Match Odds market for Gabon x Morocco
Is betting on Gabon worth it?
🔵 Gabon: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 27.11% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 5.00. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would have hit 270 times – having a profit of $1080.00;
- And would lose other 730 times – losing -$730.00 with them.
It is a value bet, since after all you would have an expected final profit of 💰$350.00.
Is betting on draw worth it?
⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 30.39%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.00. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would have hit 300 times – having a profit of $600.00;
- And would lose other 700 times – losing -$700.00 with them.
Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$100.00.
Is it worth betting on Morocco?
🔴 Morocco: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 42.51%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 1.80. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would hit 430 times – this would give you a profit of $344.00
- And would lose other 570 times – losing -$570.00 with them.
That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$226.00.
Handicaps analysis for the match Gabon x Morocco
Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.
These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.75 Gabon
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Gabon x Morocco
⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be +0.75 Gabon, and the current handicap offered by bookies is +0.5 Gabon.
Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.5 Morocco.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Gabon x Morocco
⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.75 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 1.75 goals.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 1.00. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 1.75 goals.
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Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.> Check other content created by Humberto Alves